África subsahariana

South Africa’s ambitious reform agenda will take time to bear fruit. Meanwhile, the country faces a stagflationary squeeze as inflation rises while growth slows. South African stocks, bonds, and currency are all vulnerable.

En este libro de gráficos, analizamos la balanza de pagos en países desarrollados (DM) y mercados emergentes (EM). A Estados Unidos no le va bien, pero a algunos otros países tampoco.

The South African government seems to believe that some fiscal retrenchment can stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio. But that’s a misconception. The country will need draconian spending cuts to achieve this.

The new national unity government in South Africa creates a geopolitical opportunity that investors should not bet against in the short term. A broad-based rally is likely to unfold relative to other emerging markets. However, structural problems and distrust within the new coalition hold out significant risks over the long run.

In this report, we gauge the outlook for the dollar given client visits in Africa.