Policy

The looming risk of an economic downturn, geopolitical risk and inconsistent government policy are feeding commodity markets with volatility, additional to the market specific uncertainty-generating factors. Amidst heightened event-based uncertainty and a possible general economic deterioration, investors will pay more attention and react to events, increasing overall uncertainty levels, which in turn will further fuel commodity price volatility. Commodity producers will be disincentivized from making future supply investments against heightened price volatility and policy uncertainty.

In this report, we dissect which markets have broken out and which ones have not, and reflect what this entails for our global macro view. Also, we analyze how the S&P 500 has been taking its cues from a change in the inflation trend. Yet, inflation dynamics are complex, and a falling inflation rate does not mean that the inflation menace has been eliminated.

In recent months, the European and US economies have greatly diverged, with the Euro Area massively disappointing while the US has surprised to the upside. Can this dichotomy continue or is it Europe’s turn to shine?

In this Insight, we review the latest Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of New Zealand meetings, and suggest the appropriate bond and currency strategies.

In this Insight, we review the latest Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of New Zealand meetings, and suggest the appropriate bond and currency strategies.