Economy
Empirically, the current yield to maturity gives a robust sense of the returns of 30-year German government bonds over the coming five years. At the present juncture, the yield of -0.2% suggests that over the next five years, the German long bond could…
Along with the rest of Europe, the German economy is suffering from the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 infections. The recently announced containment measures will only exacerbate this headwind to growth over the remainder of the year. Yet, neither…
The Chinese economy continued to recover in November in line with consensus expectations, indicating that the massive stimulus deployed this year is buoying the Chinese business cycle. Retail sales climbed higher to 5.0% y/y from 4.3% y/y and are converging…
US industrial production surprised to the upside in November, rising 0.39% m/m from a revised 0.95% m/m. The positive IP number reflects continued growth in manufacturing output, which rose 0.75% m/m and beat expectations of a more muted 0.4% m/m rise. While…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, policymakers are not letting the virus kill the economy and we expect them to continue to do so. Ample support will prime consumption while staving off the negative consequences that would follow a…
The Bank of Japan’s Tankan Survey indicates that Japanese business sentiment continues to rebound in Q4, surpassing expectations. Current business conditions, as expressed by large manufacturers, rose to -10 from -27, beating expectations of -15. Large…
Lumber prices are once again on the rise after a brief selloff in September and October following the extraordinary mid-year rally. While prices remain below the late-August peak, they’ve nearly doubled since the beginning of the year, supported by record-low…
The Eurozone’ M1 money supply is expanding at a 14% annual pace, its fastest rate since 1999. On the European continent, banks represent a much larger share of credit origination than they do in the US. Due to this lack of credit disintermediation, M1 still…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the European democracies have passed a major “stress test” over the past decade. Europe and the euro will benefit from the change of power in Washington, and any rise in European political risks will…
US consumer prices accelerated more than expected in November, with both the headline and core (excluding food and energy) figures picking up to 0.2% month-on-month from 0.0%. On a year-on-year basis, headline and core consumer prices were flat at 1.2% y/y…