Economy
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, there is more downside for both Chinese and global semiconductor share prices. China’s semiconductor stock indexes − both offshore and A-onshore − tumbled by about 41% and 38% (in USD…
China’s semiconductor demand and imports will continue to contract in 2023H1. Despite economic reopening, Chinese consumers will hold back spending on smartphones, personal computers (PC) and other consumer electronics over the next six months. Meanwhile, overseas customers will continue to reduce their orders for electronic goods made in China following the excessive consumption experienced during the pandemic. There is more downside for both Chinese and global semiconductor share prices. We recommend a relative trade: long Chinese semiconductor stocks / short global semi stocks.
Chinese aggregate financing surprised to the downside in December, growing by CNY 1.31 trillion following CNY 1.99 trillion previously, and below expectations of CNY 1.85 trillion. In addition, M1 and M2 measures of money supply growth decelerated. However,…
The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index’s continued deterioration underscores frail economic conditions in the US. In particular, December’s 2.1-point decrease reflects a decline in the share of business owners that expect an improvement in business…
After deteriorating sharply in the first half of last year, late-July marked a turning point in the global economic surprise index – calculated as the weighted average of Citigroup’s G10 and EM series. In particular, the G10 index started to recover and…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, downshifting profit growth expectations and rising interest rates herald a meaningful derating of Indian equities in both absolute terms and relative to their EM peers. In terms of relative…
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2023.
The ISM Services PMI slid by 6.9 points to 49.6 in December, against expectations it would ease to 55.0, and marking the first contraction in service activity in 30 months. Outside of the pandemic-related slump, the December print marks the weakest reading…
We recently highlighted that the Brazilian real was among the best performing major currencies in 2022 (second only to the dollar). However, the BRL’s relative strength has reversed in recent months and it has been among the major currencies that have…
Various measures have recently been pointing to an improvement in Euro Area sentiment. The Sentix overall index of investor confidence rose for the third consecutive month in January, climbing 3.5 points to -17.5 – its highest since June 2022. Notably, the…