Economy

Macro and geopolitical risks may spoil the narrow window for a stock market rally before recessionary trends rise to the fore.

3 years ago

Essentials

Chinese Manufacturing Activity Shrinks, Non-Manufacturing Slows

China’s NBS Composite PMI relapsed to 54.4 in April from 57 – the first monthly decline since the index bottomed at 42.6 in December. Importantly, both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices fell. In particular, the manufacturing PMI dropped 2.7…

3 years ago

Essentials

US PMIs Show Goods Inflation Accelerating In April

The April update of the ISM PMI continues to indicate that the US manufacturing sector is weak. Although the headline index increased 0.8 points to 47.1, it remains below 50 in contraction territory and near March’s 22-month low of 46.3. Two of the three…

3 years ago

Essentials

What To Do About The Yen

BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service remains bullish on the yen’s longer-term outlook. The yen is at capitulation levels. Long positions versus the dollar can be established at USD/JPY 138. The team’s longer-term bullish yen view is anchored on…

3 years ago

CoreMacro

Expectations Of A US Dollar Demise Are Premature

The risk-reward of the US dollar is currently positive. If a US recession is not imminent, then US bond yields will move higher, thus supporting the greenback. If the US enters a recession soon, the US dollar will benefit because it is counter-cyclical. Besides, the US dollar has not been as weak as the DXY index suggests.

3 years ago

Portfolio

Monthly Portfolio Update: A Two-Speed Economy

Pent-up demand for services is keeping the global economy going, but we still expect recession over the next 12 months. Investors should keep a cautious portfolio stance.

3 years ago

CoreMacro

EUR/USD: Where To Next?

EUR/USD is trying to breach above 1.10. What is the balance of positive versus negative factors that would allow the euro to breakout?

3 years ago

Essentials

US Employment Cost Index Accelerates In Q1

The US Employment Cost Index (ECI) accelerated from 1.1% q/q to 1.2% q/q in Q1 2023, rising above expectations of 1.1%. Compensation within goods-producing industries accelerated from 0.9% to 1.2%, while wages at service-providing industries grew at a slower…

3 years ago

Essentials

A Warning From The Swiss KOF

The Swiss KOF Barometer ended its four-month-long streak of rising monthly readings in April. It dropped nearly three points to 96.4 – below expectations of 98.1. Considering that the KOF barometer is a leading indicator of the Swiss economy, its latest…

3 years ago

Essentials

Euro Area Growth Will Remain Soft

The Eurozone economy’s marginal 0.1% q/q GDP growth in Q1 2023 confirms that economic conditions improved slightly at the start of the year. Although the GDP figure missed consensus expectations of a 0.2% q/q rise, it came in line with the latest ECB staff…

3 years ago

Economy

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