Economy
2023 is shaping up as a record-breaking year for global oil demand, according to our colleagues BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy (CES). By year end, they expect the world will be consuming a record 103.5mm b/d, an increase of 2.6% year-over-year (yoy).…
Mexican financial markets have been this year’s stellar outperformers, both in absolute terms and relative to their EM peers. Naturally, the question arises: how sustainable is this rally? According to our Emerging Markets Strategy team, Mexican markets are…
The conventional wisdom is that China’s economy is overly indebted and too reliant on residential construction and exports as drivers of growth. While there is much truth to these claims, they ignore the underlying problem ailing China: excess savings. High…
BCA Research's US Equity Strategy service downgraded Semiconductors to underweight for the following reasons: Weakening global growth: Global semiconductor sales move in lockstep with economic growth. Global growth continues to decelerate. The following are…
Despite a decline from 7.9% to 6.8% in July, the UK’s headline CPI surprised to the upside. The slowdown in headline CPI mostly reflects the deceleration in the annual inflation for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, which has slowed to 6.8%…
The above chart illustrates the BCA Market-Based China Growth Indicator, which is made up of 17 series grouped into four asset class subcomponents: currencies, commodities, equities, and rates/fixed-income. The purpose of the indicator is to act as a broad…
The fiscal impulse philosophies of the two largest economies of the world are set to pull in opposite directions in 2023. After the massive fiscal stimulus of 2020, the US had been cutting back on its deficit. But US fiscal policy is no longer restrictive.…
BCA Research's US Bond Strategy service recommends a cautious allocation to high-yield munis, but the team still prefers the sector over high-yield corporate bonds. Along with junk-rated corporate bonds, high-yield munis have been one of the top performing US…
Japanese real GDP grew at an annualized pace of 6% year-on-year in Q2. Reading the tea leaves from the release, public investment rose by 5% quarter-on-quarter annualized, while residential investment jumped by a whopping 7.7%. The big takeaway, however, was…
The Chinese government today announced that it is suspending the reporting of urban youth unemployment rate. This rate reached 21.3% in June after climbing since December. While there is an element of seasonality to the data – as youth unemployment rate…