Economy
Results of the ZEW survey of investor sentiment delivered a mixed signal on Tuesday. On the positive side, the indicator of economic sentiment for Germany unexpectedly ticked up from -12.3 to -11.4, surprising expectation of a further deterioration to…
Strong consumer spending so far this year has been powered by robust employment gains coupled with real wage growth turning positive on the back of receding inflationary pressures. However, our US equity strategists recently highlighted that these…
Real wages are set to rise in CE3 economies with implications for their asset markets and currencies. Of the three, Polish assets and the zloty are the most vulnerable.
Recent Chinese economic data show some signs of stabilization. China’s credit expansion surprised to the upside in August. Aggregate social financing totaled CNY3.12 trillion – above expectations of CNY2.69 trillion and exceeding the prior month’s CNY0.528…
The New York Fed’s latest consumer expectations survey shows household sentiment deteriorated in August. Job loss expectations jumped, with the average perceived likelihood of losing one’s job over the coming year increasing by 2.0 percentage points to a…
Our colleagues at BCA’s US Investment Strategy service have been excess savings bulls since cash began silting up on household balance sheets as transfer payments flowed from the Capitol to Main Street while High Street businesses were shuttered. Excess…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, valuations, interest rate differentials, and higher oil prices favor the NOK over the EUR. Higher oil prices, especially when they reflect tightening supply, act as a risk to the euro. This…
Stocks perform worse in presidential election years than average years, especially in the first half of the year, and especially if the ruling party ends up falling from power. Investors should take risk off the table until the unemployment rate peaks.
Magnificent Seven leadership is neither a new nor an unnatural phenomenon. There is no shortage of reasons why equities might have already made a top, but investors should not be tricked into thinking that the rally was somehow specious.
Earlier this year, our Emerging Markets strategists highlighted that the divergence between Latin American and Emerging Asian currencies was unsustainable. While Latam currencies – including the COP, MXN, BRL, PEN, and CLP – all strengthened against the US…