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Economy

US Manufacturing ISM Delivers A Somber Message
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI delivered a disappointing update on factory activity in October. The headline index unexpectedly fell to 46.7, surprising consensus estimates it would remain unchanged at 49.0. In particular, a sharp 4.4-point decline in the…
Daily Insights
The Fed Is Proceeding Carefully
As expected, the Fed stood pat at its Wednesday meeting, maintaining the target for the fed funds rate at 5.25-5.50%. The minimal changes made to the Fed Statement were to emphasize the strong pace of economic activity in Q3, to characterize job gains as…
Daily Insights
Kospi Is Already Priced For An Export Expansion
South Korean exports are the latest in a series of Asian trade data suggesting that the global trade cycle is bottoming. The 5.1% y/y increase in October marks the first return to growth since September 2022. Among South Korea's major trade partners, sales to…
Daily Insights
October In Review
The broad-based selloff continued in October. Fixed income markets performed particularly poorly as stronger-than-anticipated US economic data generated upside pressure on long-dated bond yields in the US and, to a lesser extent, across other major…
Daily Insights
China: A Government Bailout?
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, China's recently introduced debt swap program will help prevent mushrooming defaults, but it will not lead to an acceleration in growth. In August, the Ministry of Finance permitted 12 heavily…
Daily Insights
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Did Policymakers Just Solidify The Cyclical Peak In Yields?

Our reaction to today’s FOMC meeting and the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Worrying Uptrends In Inflation Expectations Are Being Masked

The fundamental component of long-term inflation expectations has climbed to its highest level since 2008 in both the US and the euro area. This means that both the Fed and the ECB will need to engineer inflation to undershoot 2 percent for an extended period if they are to maintain their 2 percent inflation targets. We explain what this means for investment strategy over the coming 6-12 months. Plus, we pinpoint what to focus on in this Friday’s US jobs report. And we identify food and beverages (PBJ) and the Indonesian rupiah (IDR/USD) as excellent rebound candidates.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
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Monthly Portfolio Update: The Cure For High Rates Is High Rates

High interest rates will eventually cause growth to slow. Signs of stress are already starting to show. Stay cautiously positioned.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Chinese PMIs Relapse In October
Tuesday’s China PMI release delivered a negative update on economic activity in October. The NBS’ Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.2 to 49.5 while the Non-manufacturing PMI declined from 51.7 to 50.6. Both measures fell below consensus expectations, and the…
Daily Insights
Yen Weakens Following BoJ's YCC Tweak
The Bank of Japan adjusted the language of its Monetary Policy Statement on Tuesday to indicate that it will allow greater flexibility it its yield curve control policy (YCC). It indicated that although the target level of 10-year JGB yields remains unchanged…
Daily Insights

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