Developed Countries
US small business optimism deteriorated for the second consecutive month in September. The NFIB index weakened by 0.5 points to 90.8, slightly below expectations of a more muted decline to 91.0. The latest move brings the index further below the 49-year…
Results of the New York Fed’s survey show American consumers’ near-term inflation outlook ticked up in September. Respondents’ one-year ahead inflation expectations rose from 3.6% to 3.7%, and the three-year ahead expectations increased from 2.8% to 3.0%.…
As we highlighted in a recent Insight, the stronger-than-anticipated improvement in German factory orders should be viewed with some degree of caution. Germany is the European economy most exposed to the global manufacturing sector. Several leading indicators…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, volatility will remain the key dynamic in oil markets in the aftermath of the surprise Hamas attacks against Israel on October 7. Everything depends on whether Israeli and US intelligence conclude…
The market has been held hostage by surging rates. Zombie companies are “alive” and are multiplying – they are highly sensitive to surging borrowing costs. Underweight Utilities to reduce portfolio duration. Maintain neutral positioning of Basic Materials but take a granular approach to allocations within the sector.
European auto stocks are cheap, but even if European carmakers can rise to the challenge created by Chinese EVs, shareholders will suffer.
Households’ excess pandemic savings will eventually run out, but we continue to disagree with the widespread view that they’re already gone or entirely in the hands of the wealthy. Consumers’ demise continues to be greatly exaggerated.
The US Nonfarm Payroll report delivered a strong positive surprise about employment growth in September. Job gains accelerated from 187 thousand to 336 thousand – significantly above expectations of a slight decline to 170 thousand. In addition, the increase…
August brought some respite for German factories struggling with poor demand this year. After falling by 11.3% m/m in the prior month, German factory orders rebounded by 3.9% m/m in August – beating expectations of a 1.5% m/m increase. In particular, a…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the odds of a US government shutdown are 50/50 and will go higher if Democrats harden their demands or if Republicans pick a populist speaker. The next deadline to fund the government is November…