Developed Countries

Special Report

While it is impossible to time the stock market, even a system whose results are slightly better than a coin-flip can still generate significant <i>alpha</i>. Overweight equities when valuations are favorable, growth is advancing, and financial conditions are easing. Stocks tend to do best when sentiment is bearish but improving, and the market has started trending higher without yet going parabolic. The outlook for U.S. stocks is rather mixed; Europe, Japan and China should outperform (currency-hedged).

For the month of May, the model underperformed both global equities and the S&P 500. For the month of June, the model is further paring back its risk exposure.

Consumer goods stocks enjoyed a spirited run at the end of 2015 and into 2016, but have largely consolidated that outperformance this year. However, the S&P packaged food (PF) index has bucked the trend, recently setting a new all-time relative performance high. Despite our preference for defensive groups, we are surprised by the resilience of the PF industry, and wary of its sustainability. To be sure, a surge in net earnings revisions suggests that analysts were behind the curve. However, positive profit revisions are not necessarily a sign of operating vitality, as they appear to be entirely driven by cost reductions rather than top-line strength: packaged food sales growth is contracting. PF ROE has deteriorated on the back of revenue contraction, diverging negatively from the relative valuation expansion. Typically, a sustained multiple increase can only occur within the context of a rising ROE, given the latter's direct impact on profit growth. Relative valuations may reflect an M&A premium rather than superior operating performance. Both the value and volume of deals accelerated aggressively in 2015. But 2016 has seen a sharp drop in the value of announced deals, warning that valuations may get squeezed unless growth prospects improve. We are underweight this group. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5PACK - MDLZ, KHC, GIS, CAG, TSN, K, MJN, SJM, HSY, MKC, CPB, HRL.VAR.

The housing market remains a bright spot within the U.S. economy, which is not yet fully reflected in relative share performance. For instance, the NAHB survey has massively outperformed the ISM composite, signaling that relative profit conditions are more favorable for housing (top panel). The latest data showed that new home sales have surged, and that homes purchased but not yet under construction are at their highest level since 2007. Importantly, while banks are tightening standards on C&I loans, they remain willing to make mortgage loans, and consumers are increasingly willing to take on residential-related debt. This is bullish from a cyclical perspective, particularly since housing starts and household formation have considerable room to run before hitting a saturation point. Stay overweight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5HOME - DHI, LEN, PHM.

Stocks have breathed a sigh of relief following earnings season. Nevertheless, cracks are spreading beneath the surface. The chart shows a compilation of non-conventional indicators that are waving a yellow flag. Breadth is thinning, as evidenced by the downtrend in the NYSE A/D line (top panel). Sentiment is also poor, with bullish investors throwing in the towel at an accelerating pace (third panel). Rather than view this contrarily, it can often be a sign that selling may accelerate. Moreover, once vibrant M&A activity is cooling rapidly, and the news has been recently dominated not by deal making, but by deal break ups. This may reflect increased trepidation about further adding debt to already bloated corporate sector balance sheets (bottom panel). Bottom Line: Resist the temptation to deplete cash balances, and continue to favor defensives over deep cyclicals. A capital preservation mindset is still warranted.

Against a backdrop of continuing supply destruction, particularly in the U.S., and a pick-up in crude demand, markets will remain in balance this quarter and go into a deficit in 2016H2.

Special Report

A combination of physical rebalancing in the oil markets and geopolitical risk have pushed oil prices above $50/bbl. We therefore close our recommendation - made jointly with BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy team - to long a December 2016 WTI $50/$55 call spread for a 106.3% gain.

The latest conclusions from the sector-based (right) way to pick stock markets. Plus some important conclusions for credit markets.

Special Report

This month's <i>Special Report</i> reviews the literature on equity market timing, and identifies the key indicators that historically have had the best track record. We then aggregate the indicators into an overall scorecard that should prove to be valuable for investors in these volatile times.