Today, we are introducing an additional ‘high-frequency Joshi rule’ which is updated weekly. The Joshi rules tell us that a US recession is not imminent. Until the Joshi rules are triggered, overweight non-US government bonds, and especially UK gilts, versus US T-bonds. And shift cyclical asset allocation from overweight to neutral-weight bonds. Plus: tactically long USD/GBP and tactically underweight global industrials (EXI).
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