Strategy Insight
Republicans Can Still Win This Election
Our quant model shows Democrats winning the election at a 56% probability, with 303 electoral college votes. But swing state economies are slowing and Democrats’ odds in Michigan fell. Trump can win with Georgia, Michigan, plus one other state. Neither the Fed nor China’s stimulus should reduce one’s odds of a Republican upset.
BCAリサーチ | US Political Strategy
A blend of geopolitics and macro, synthesizing the new and old macro to generate alpha and identify the beta through probability-weighted market views.
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