Oil Demand Forecasts Are Too Optimistic

The three major oil forecasters – IEA, EIA, and OPEC – are forecasting oil demand growth until 2025 to be broadly in line with its range over the past four decades. On a cyclical horizon, we give high odds that a recession will begin within the coming 6-12 months, disappointing these oil demand forecasts. On a strategic horizon, the IEA projects EVs will displace 9% of global oil demand by 2035, serving as a long-term demand headwind.