May 2024

In a guest authorship of Section I, Doug Peta addresses the recession skepticism often raised by investors. Excess savings are nearly or already drained, labor market indicators remain consistent with an eventual contraction in payroll growth, and there are no signs that credit growth will keep consumer spending afloat. Additionally, this month’s Section II is a guest piece written by Ritika Mankar of BCA’s Global Investment Strategy service. Ritika checks in on the balance sheet health of large, global, listed nonfinancial firms. Firms in the US and Japan appear to be the most resilient in advance of a coming recession, followed by Europe. Chinese firms are the least resilient from a balance sheet perspective.