While the market welcomed the pause in Liberation Day tariffs, we believe investors are overly optimistic about the relief from this Trump-driven uncertainty. Even with the pause, current tariff levels remain higher than they were in January. Elevated tariff levels are likely to be inflationary, which could explain the recent spikes in US Treasury yields. Currently, Congress does not have a veto-proof majority to rein in President Trump’s tariff policies, meaning the trade war with China will persist.
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Investigación BCA | GeoMacro
A blend of geopolitics and macro, synthesizing the new and old macro to generate alpha and identify the beta through probability-weighted market views.
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