GeoMacro

Informe especial

Go long the Kensho Space index over a cyclical horizon on the back of growing public and private investment, rising national security interests, declining sector costs, and heightened geopolitical risk.

Informe especial

Stocks will only get temporary relief from gridlock. Inflation will abate but then remain sticky. US and global policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk will remain historically high.

Informe especial

Stocks will only get temporary relief from gridlock. Inflation will abate but then remain sticky. US and global policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk will remain historically high.

Expect the Middle East to create new and unexpected energy supply disruptions on top of the Russian energy shock.

The midterm election will bring some relief from US policy uncertainty. But this relief will be short-lived unless Republicans win the Senate, which is still too close to call. Global policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk will remain high.

Informe especial

The G7’s attempt to insert itself in the oil-price-formation process performed by global trading markets will distort markets and the signals driving production, consumption and investment. The G7 will need a face-saving off-ramp to ditch this planner-based proposal. We expect Brent prices to move toward our expectations of $105/bbl in 4Q22 and $118/bbl in 2023, and remain long the XOP ETF.

Stay defensive at least until the US midterm election is over. Gridlock is disinflationary in 2023 and hence marginally positive for US equities. But any relief rally will be short-lived as recession risks are very high.

Informe especial

Investors should overweight US defense stocks in a world where US war-weariness is declining and the Biden administration is likely to exhibit an increasingly hawkish foreign policy.

Russia’s conflict with the West will escalate and trigger more bad news for risky assets this fall. Beyond that, stalemate looms. Latin American equities present a potential opportunity once the macro and geopolitical backdrop improve.

Informe especial

The BoE is the key to arrest the meltdown in UK assets, but will the malaise engulfing London only end up traveling to Rome?