GeoMacro

Positive economic surprises have delayed the onset of recession in the United States. But tighter monetary and fiscal policy, slowing global growth, and a looming rebound in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk suggest that investors should buy insurance while it is cheap.

Informe especial

The Russian mutiny reveals the underlying trend of domestic instability. Russian instability is negative for global stability. The endgame of the war in Ukraine is exacerbating the problem, likely pushing up the equity risk premium.

Informe especial

We are strategically bullish on the outlook of the energy sector. Domestic and external political constraints asserted themselves, restraining the most negative impulse against this sector by the Biden administration. Go long energy versus cyclicals (ex-tech).

In response to the first-ever federal indictment of a former President, investors should focus on the state of the economy and not on Trump’s legal trouble. They should also use the current market rally to stock up on protection, as a recession is still likely, albeit delayed.

Informe especial

It is easy to claim that the ECB is failing in light of today’s elevated inflation readings. Yet, the reality is more subtle and the ECB’s performance lays the ground for stronger growth ahead.

Informe especial

The aerospace and defense industry faces several short-term headwinds such as the defense budget standoff, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages. But most of these will clear in the near term, and a relief rally is likely. Ensuing global geopolitical risks and rivalry will remain a long-term tailwind, bolstering the industry over a long-term horizon. Remain overweight.

Informe especial

Now that the French pension reforms have been passed, President Macron’s focus will be on the international stage. Where are the risks and opportunities for French assets created by this pivot?

President Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party emerged as the winner of the Turkish general election which was concluded yesterday. This victory means that their expansive policies of the past decade will continue, and Turkish assets will suffer. Across the Aegean, the Greeks voted to reelect the New Democrats under the leadership of Prime Minister Mitsotakis. Their fiscal prudence and structural reforms will be continued as voters had rewarded them with another term in office. Go long Greek versus Turkish equities.

Investors should expect high volatility and a selloff in US stocks over the short run due to the higher-than-usual risk of technical default. Investors should seek shelter in defensive sectors and large cap stocks. Long-dated Treasuries will see yields fall due to the overall macro and geopolitical context even though short-dated Treasuries will continue to suffer from policy uncertainty.

Informe especial

In this *Special Report*, we analyze the dollar’s reserve status within the context of geopolitical crosscurrents. In our view, there is more than meets the eye when betting on the end of the dollar’s reserve status.