Inflation/Deflation
Goods prices have normalized following the pandemic binge on goods spending and have contributed to easing price pressures overall. A large drop in vehicle prices largely drove the decrease in July’s CPI and we have questioned the sustainability of an easing…
US producer prices rose by a softer-than-expected 0.1% m/m in July, from 0.2% in June. The core measure remained unchanged, the tamest reading in four months. Notably, the index for final demand services fell 0.2% m/m. Our US Bond strategists have highlighted…
The RBA kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in August, in line with expectations. However, it lifted its trimmed-mean inflation forecast to 3.5% y/y in Q4 2024 and to 2.9% by Q4 2025 (up from 3.4% and 2.8% in its May forecast, respectively). Inflation…
The Australian CPI release for Q2 came in broadly within expectations. Headline CPI reaccelerated to 3.8%y/y from 3.6%y/y the previous quarter. Some of the narrower measures of inflation — trimmed-mean and weighted median CPI — came in below market…
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, while the market action of the past few weeks is pointing to a return to a negative stock-bond correlation, more prints will be needed to confirm things are getting back to normal. The post-COVID…
The Bank of England (BoE) lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5% at its meeting on Thursday. While the move was expected, the governing board was split, voting 5 – 4 in favor of reducing the key interest rate. The BoE cut its policy rate despite its…
The market is pricing in a soft landing, but we see growing signs that the global economy is faltering. Investors should be defensively positioned.
Eurozone headline CPI inflation unexpectedly accelerated in July, from 2.5% y/y to 2.6%. Core CPI remained stable at 2.9% despite expectations it would ease. EU Harmonized CPI accelerated in the regions’ three largest economies, surprising by a large margin…
China’s NBS manufacturing PMI declined further in July, from 49.5 to 49.4, marking a third consecutive month of contraction. New orders and new export orders underscored continued weakness in both domestic and foreign demand conditions. Meanwhile, the NBS…