Financial Markets
The secular stagnation narrative is gaining traction amongst the FOMC. Expect further downward revisions to longer run FOMC interest rates forecasts, toward levels already discounted in the Treasury curve.
We prefer to fade the recent fall in yields by moving to neutral on U.K. Gilts and underweight Australia, while maintaining a benchmark overall stance on portfolio duration.
The sinking global credit impulse warns that reflation has not overwhelmed deflationary forces. Financials will continue to suffer, while utilities and retail drug stores will benefit.
The Fed has reason to delay the next rate hike until at least September, even if volatility subsides after the June 23 Brexit vote.
This fact sheet outlines what you need to know ahead of the U.K.'s referendum on EU membership. The "Leave" camp has taken the lead, and while the polls likely overstate its position, the status quo faces serious risks.
The Brexit vote is a coin toss. We introduce a simple model to estimate the effect of a "stay" or a "leave" vote on various currencies and assets. A "leave" vote could cause GBP/USD to fall to 1.32 or less, creating a tactical buying opportunity. Extreme GBP implied volatility suggests that selling vol is attractive. The Fed decreased its rate projections.
Increasing uncertainty over the Brexit vote will keep the Fed from raising its overnight policy rate at this week's FOMC meeting, but it may not keep the USD from rallying in the event of a decisive win for Brexit advocates on June 23.
Three strategies that could win whatever the outcome of Britain's referendum on EU membership. And what to look out for in the final days before the vote.
The exponential rise in banks' non-standard credit assets has occurred in spite of the government's efforts to contain and regulate it. The government does not have full control over shadow banking and non-large banks. These have become a large part of the credit system. Hence, the assumption that the central government in Beijing can sustain any rate of credit growth it desires is overly simplistic. Short small bank stocks in China.
