Economy
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service concludes that while the Fed’s hiking cycle is close to its peak, there will not be rate cuts anytime soon The team’s view remains that the Treasury market response to recent banking turmoil is overdone. Depending on…
US retail sales delivered a relatively somber signal about consumer demand in February. The advance estimate’s 0.4% m/m decline in February came in line with expectations of a decrease following January’s upwardly revised 3.2% m/m gain. Notably, the weakness…
Chinese data confirms that household spending rebounded in the first two months of 2023. The 3.5% y/y increase in retail sales in January and February follows two consecutive months of declines at the end of last year and marks the strongest gain in a year.…
US homebuilder sentiment has been consistently recovering since the beginning of the year. The results of the March NAHB survey show an unexpected 2-point increase in the Housing Market Index which is now at its highest since September. The latest improvement…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is more imminent than most economists anticipate. Exactly one year ago today, the US Federal Reserve embarked on the most…
The odds of achieving a goldilocks scenario in the US where inflation drops amidst robust growth are low. If US bank woes do not escalate, the Fed will continue hiking amid a contraction in US corporate profits and global trade. The recovery in China’s industrial economy will disappoint. Commodity prices are breaking down.
Bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is imminent, yet stocks, bonds, and the oil price are still a long way from fully pricing it.
The results of the NFIB survey suggest that a restrictive monetary policy stance is warranted from the Fed. Although there is evidence that price pressures are moderating, they remain elevated. Despite a four-point decline from January, the share of…
Since Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) was seized by the FDIC last Friday, and Signature Bank (SBNY) was shuttered over the weekend, investors have been on pins and needles wondering how many more banks will fold. Our US Investment Strategy service doesn’t…
BCA Research’s US Political Strategy & US Equity Strategy services are bullish on generative AI as a long-term investment theme. One of the reasons for the technology sector’s unexpected outperformance since the beginning of January is a frenzy around a new…