Economy

The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets with a 25bp rate hike at its Tuesday meeting, bringing the cash rate up to 3.85%. This decision follows a pause in April, which provided policymakers some time to assess the full effect of the 350 bps of…

3 years ago

Essentials

ECB Policy Is Biting

Results of the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey revealed a substantial tightening in credit standards for loans to firms and loans to households for house purchase in Q1. Higher perceptions of risk and lower risk tolerance are behind the tighter conditions and banks…

3 years ago

Essentials

First Republic Is Gone, But Bank Concerns Remain

First Republic (FRC) became the third large-cap bank to fold when regulators seized it over the weekend. Investors took the news in stride on Monday, but several large- and mid-cap regional banks sold off sharply on Tuesday. Our US Investment Strategy service…

3 years ago

GeoMacro

Caveat Emptor (GeoRisk Update)

Macro and geopolitical risks may spoil the narrow window for a stock market rally before recessionary trends rise to the fore.

3 years ago

Essentials

Chinese Manufacturing Activity Shrinks, Non-Manufacturing Slows

China’s NBS Composite PMI relapsed to 54.4 in April from 57 – the first monthly decline since the index bottomed at 42.6 in December. Importantly, both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices fell. In particular, the manufacturing PMI dropped 2.7…

3 years ago

Essentials

US PMIs Show Goods Inflation Accelerating In April

The April update of the ISM PMI continues to indicate that the US manufacturing sector is weak. Although the headline index increased 0.8 points to 47.1, it remains below 50 in contraction territory and near March’s 22-month low of 46.3. Two of the three…

3 years ago

Essentials

What To Do About The Yen

BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service remains bullish on the yen’s longer-term outlook. The yen is at capitulation levels. Long positions versus the dollar can be established at USD/JPY 138. The team’s longer-term bullish yen view is anchored on…

3 years ago

CoreMacro

Expectations Of A US Dollar Demise Are Premature

The risk-reward of the US dollar is currently positive. If a US recession is not imminent, then US bond yields will move higher, thus supporting the greenback. If the US enters a recession soon, the US dollar will benefit because it is counter-cyclical. Besides, the US dollar has not been as weak as the DXY index suggests.

3 years ago

Portfolio

Monthly Portfolio Update: A Two-Speed Economy

Pent-up demand for services is keeping the global economy going, but we still expect recession over the next 12 months. Investors should keep a cautious portfolio stance.

3 years ago

CoreMacro

EUR/USD: Where To Next?

EUR/USD is trying to breach above 1.10. What is the balance of positive versus negative factors that would allow the euro to breakout?

3 years ago

Economy

Related Topics