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Developed Countries

According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, there are four fundamental reasons to position for higher energy prices that will support the Canadian dollar. The US is becoming the marginal supplier of natural gas to the world. Energy…

MacroQuant is overweight bonds, underweight equities, and neutral on cash. Within the equity universe, the model is underweight the US and overweight Japan, the UK, and Australia.

Commodity currencies have been rather resilient, despite the broad rise in the dollar this year. In our view, we are about to experience a big rotation in commodity currency market performance at the crosses, from NZD, to CAD and finally to AUD.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI contracted in November for the first time since mid-2020. It fell to 49.3 from 50.2, corroborating the downbeat signal from the alternative S&P Global PMI which declined by 2.7 points to 47.7. Details of the report underscore…
Over the past two months, the S&P 600 Small Cap index has gained nearly 17%, slightly outperforming the S&P 500 large cap benchmark by 3.1%. This marks an improvement in the fate of small caps, which have generally fallen in line with their larger…

Recession is not yet fully priced in, so markets have further to fall next year. But watch for a buying opportunity in the second half.

Special Report

Web 3.0 plays will boom in the coming decade. Play this through a diversified exposure to today’s main blockchain tokens. But the Web 2.0 oligopolies, like Amazon and Meta, are in big trouble.

The S&P 500 is down by 17% year to date, while our portfolio is up 15%. US political analysis is essential for investors but it is best done by geopolitical method rather than Washington punditry.

Euro Area headline CPI inflation eased by more than anticipated in November. The annual rate moderated from 10.6% y/y to 10.0% y/y, while the monthly figure showed a 0.1% m/m decline in prices following October’s 1.5% m/m increase. Price decreases in energy…
US Q3 GDP was revised higher in the second estimate to 2.9% from the initial 2.6%. In particular, consumer spending is now estimated to have contributed 1.18 percentage points to GDP – up from the initial 0.97 percentage points – with stronger services…