Developed Countries
The S&P 500 has climbed 9.7% since mid-October, reducing the magnitude of the index’s decline since its January 3 peak to 18.2%. The question facing investors is whether the recent gains represent a bear market bounce that will ultimately give way to…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends that investors enter 2023 with close to benchmark portfolio duration and with an underweight allocation to spread product versus Treasuries. While 2022 was a year of rapid Fed tightening, 2023 will be one…
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2022.
2023 will be another challenging year for the US equity market, characterized by the Fed’s battle with inflation, slowing economic growth, and earnings contraction. The S&P 500 is likely to reach new lows in the first half of the year falling as much as 20-25%, only to rebound sharply in the second half, once all the bad news is priced in.
The ISM Services PMI surprised to the upside, unexpectedly expanding at a faster pace in November. The headline index rose by 2.1 ppts to 56.5, led by the business activity and import sub-indices which rose by 9.0 and 9.1 ppts to 64.7 and 59.5, respectively.…
BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service concludes that earnings will continue on a downward path in 2023, and analyst downgrades are highly likely. Earnings growth is key to 2023 equity performance. With economic growth deteriorating, it is reasonable to…
Labor market strength and consumers’ evident willingness to dip into their pandemic savings keep our optimistic consumer thesis intact. We remain tactically overweight equities.
European inflation will decline through 2023, which will greatly help households and consumption. But can European inflation remain low after that?
US nonfarm payrolls increased by a greater-than-expected 263 thousand jobs in November, following an upwardly revised 284 thousand gain in October. Although the participation rate edged down to 62.1%, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. Most notably,…
Over the past few months, energy equities have diverged from oil prices. Although the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has fallen by 4% since mid-July, the S&P Energy index has gained 34.4% over this period, outperforming the S&P 500 by…