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Developed Countries

A Cooling Labor Market?
Weekly US initial jobless claims released on Thursday ticked up from 225 thousand to 230 thousand. Moreover, continuing unemployment claims surprised to the upside and climbed higher for the eighth consecutive week. The higher number of workers filing for…
Daily Insights
Favor Defensive Equities Amid Deteriorating Manufacturing Conditions
Since the beginning of the year, the US service sector has held up relatively better than manufacturing. The ongoing normalization in household demand for consumer goods following the pandemic binge is weighing on manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, pent-up…
Daily Insights
Insulation
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, beyond the normal lags in monetary policy, four additional factors should delay the onset of a US recession until 2024. First, job openings remain elevated. In October, there were 1.7 job…
Daily Insights
Gold Remains In The Fed's Wake

We expect a bullish gold environment in 2023, conditional on a more dovish Fed. We are hesitant to go strategically long gold, since our view hinges on one variable: US monetary policy. We remain tactically bullish gold to take advantage of the reduced pace of US rate hikes.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam
The Mystery Of The Missing Workers, Finally Solved

The pandemic gave older Americans and Brits a massive carrot and stick to retire early. The carrot being a surge in wealth, the stick being a risk to health. In other major economies, the carrots and sticks were smaller or non-existent. Hence, the shortage of older workers, and the resulting wage inflation, is a specific US and UK problem. We go through the important economic and investment implications for 2023.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
BoC: Upcoming Pause?
As expected, the Bank of Canada lifted the overnight interest rate target by 50bps to 4.25% at its Wednesday meeting. The post-meeting statement was less hawkish than the October version. In particular, although it mentioned that “inflation is still too…
Daily Insights
Sentix Signals Euro Area Manufacturing Rebound
The December Sentix Economic Index sent a positive signal about investor morale. The overall index for the Eurozone jumped from -30.9 to -21 – beating expectations of a more muted improvement to -27.5. Both the current situation and expectations components of…
Daily Insights
2023 Key Views: Gridlock At Home, Crisis Abroad
Special Report

Investors should maintain a conservative and defensive strategy until recession risks are clearly reduced.

US Political Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri, Guy Russell
Exports To US Drive Canada’s Trade Surplus
Canada’s exports and imports grew by 1.5% m/m and 0.6% m/m respectively in October, causing the trade surplus to widen to a larger-than-expected CAD 1.21 bn from a downwardly revised CAD 607 mn in September. Nearly three quarters of Canada’s exports go to…
Daily Insights
RBA Delivers Its Eighth Consecutive Rate Hike
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the Cash Rate by 25bps to a 10-year high of 3.1% on Tuesday – the third consecutive quarter-point increase after it unexpectedly slowed the pace of hikes in October. Governor Philip Lowe’s post-meeting…
Daily Insights

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