Developed Countries
BCA’s annual outlook for 2023 concludes that “either the onset of recession in the US, or a further decline in risky asset prices in anticipation of an eventual US recession, will likely occur at some point next year.” The report also highlights that the…
US CPI inflation cooled for a second consecutive month in November. The headline figure eased to 0.1% m/m (7.1% y/y), falling below consensus estimates. Core inflation was also softer-than-anticipated, moderating to 0.2% m/m (6.0% y/y) from 0.3% m/m (6.3%…
Conflicting forces are dominating the UK labor market. Data released on Tuesday revealed that the unemployment rate ticked up from 3.6% to 3.7% in the three months to October (the second consecutive increase), providing some evidence of cooling employment…
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent an upbeat signal about economic conditions in both Germany and the Eurozone in December. The headline index for Germany rebounded by 13.4 points to -23.3 while the Eurozone measure jumped 15.1 points to -23.6. Both…
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service recommends that investors maintain a neutral allocation to global inflation-linked bonds versus nominals. Inflation-linked bonds (ILBs) played a useful role in bond portfolios in 2021, providing a partial…
Preliminary results from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey suggest that American household morale firmed in December. The headline index climbed 2.3 points following November’s decline to 56.8. Importantly, consumers’ assessment of current…
On aggregate, US firms experienced a sharp increase in pricing power following the initial shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, this trend has since reversed, and companies’ pricing power is fading. The darkening economic backdrop ultimately limits firms’…
The chart above shows equity valuations ahead of the eight most recent major S&P 500 drawdowns. It suggests that there is some evidence that the magnitude of decline in equity prices is somewhat dependent on equity valuations ahead of the drawdowns. In…
Heading into 2023, BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service recommends fixed-income investors overweight Euro Area IG relative to both government bonds and US credit, while adopting a more cautious stance toward high-yield. European corporate…
Following the release of the Bank Credit Analyst’s annual outlook, we unveil our key views for 2023. The investment strategy takeaway is that we want to lean into risk in the early part of the year but reduce exposure to it in the second half.