Developed Countries
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the US political and geopolitical context has not yet verifiably improved, and they doubt it will prior to 2024. Any market rally will be capped at an unexpected time over the coming months. The US…
Investors should stay defensive on recession risks until they subside meaningfully.
We remain bullish the yen, despite the BoJ maintaining yield curve control. In this report, we outline a few reasons for this stance.
We remain bullish the yen, despite the BoJ maintaining yield curve control. In this report, we outline a few reasons for this stance.
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent an upbeat signal about economic conditions in both Germany and the Eurozone in January. Most notably, the expectations subindices for both regions rebounded sharply to positive territory, from -23.6 to 16.7 in the…
The gauge of manufacturing activity in the state of New York sank a whopping 21.7 points to -32.9 in January, largely disappointing expectations of a marginal improvement to -8.6. Notably, new orders and shipments dropped by 27.5 and 27.7 points respectively,…
The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) Business Outlook Survey highlights weakening business sentiment in Q4. The overall index fell to 0.1 from 1.7 in Q3, below the average that has prevailed over the past decade. Notably, most firms surveyed cited rising interest rates…
US equity market dynamics are consistent with an improvement in risk-on sentiment in financial markets. US cyclical equities have outperformed defensives by nearly 7% since the beginning of July. However, this market action is inconsistent with the macro…
Speculative-grade US corporate bonds have been rallying alongside other risky financial assets recently. In particular, yields on US junk bonds have declined by roughly 160bps since early October and credit spreads have narrowed. Although continued signs…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that the biggest threat hanging over European markets is the increasingly hawkish tone displayed by the ECB. The ECB is very worried about inflation, especially with core CPI bucking the trend…