Developed Countries
The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS), which reports on both the demand for and supply of bank loans, revealed that demand weakened and standards tightened in Q4 2022. In particular, 45% of all banks reported that they “tightened…
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 bps on Tuesday to 3.35% -- marking the ninth consecutive rate hike. In particular, Governor Philip Lowe’s statement highlighted that robust domestic demand as well as global factors are…
Powell’s much anticipated comments to the Economic Club of Washington on Tuesday did not signal a shift in the Fed’s outlook following Friday’s unexpectedly strong jobs report. Instead, in his first appearance since last week’s 25bp rate hike, he highlighted…
The S&P 500 is up by 14.9% since its October 2022 low. It surged 7.1% this year alone. The quick snapback after entering a bear market last year raises the question about the sustainability of the rally in US stocks. In terms of technical measures,…
The February Sentix Index continues to send a positive signal about investor morale. The Eurozone measure jumped 9.5 points to -8, beating expectations of a more muted rise to -13.5. Notably, the February surge marks the fourth consecutive increase and brings…
US financial conditions have been easing since mid-October and are now back in accommodative territory. The equity rally, weakening dollar, lower bond yields and tighter credit spreads have all contributed to looser financial conditions in the US…
BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service upgraded small because many risks weighing on this asset class have receded. However, this is a tactical allocation and they are still cautious about overweighing US equities on a strategic basis. Small has…
The Fed’s actions at its meeting last Wednesday were no surprise – downshifting to 25 basis points while guiding for more hikes was widely expected – but Chair Powell’s newly conciliatory tone at the press conference helped to spark a two-day equity rally. We remain overweight equities, expecting the S&P 500 to rally into the mid-4,000s at some point in the first half.
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2023.
The US Jobs report delivered good news about labor market conditions in January. The 517 thousand surge in nonfarm payrolls was nearly triple the anticipated 188 thousand gain and the largest monthly increase since July 2022. Increases in leisure &…