Correlations

This report looks at the relationship between rate risk and credit risk and how it has changed over time. It also makes the case for favoring agency MBS within an underweight allocation to US spread product.

When complexity collapses, it is a red flag for impending tail-events, heart attacks, and reversals in the markets. We describe how to measure complexity, how to spot the red flag that it has collapsed, and list some investments that are approaching potential turning-points.

This is the first of two Special Reports aiming to answer client questions in response to the recent dramatic changes in stock-bond correlations. In this report we focus on what role US Treasurys have played since 1872, how the current regime shift in stock-bond correlation compares to 150-years of history, and how it will impact asset allocation going forward. 

The risk-on rally is challenging our annual forecast so we are cutting some losses. But we still think central banks and geopolitics will combine to reverse the rally later this year.

This insight presents an outlook on USD-Denominated Emerging Market Bonds.

Web 3.0 plays will boom in the coming decade. Play this through a diversified exposure to today’s main blockchain tokens. But the Web 2.0 oligopolies, like Amazon and Meta, are in big trouble.