Policy

Restrictive Financial Conditions: A Drag On Growth

US financial conditions have tightened meaningfully in Q3. While the Goldman Sachs index remains below where it was a year ago, it crossed above the 100 line in late September into restrictive levels after spending most of the year in accommodative territory.…

2 years ago

GeoMacro

The Math Behind Trump’s Nomination

More equity volatility is coming in the short run. Trump’s nomination looks to be smooth, which marginally reduces the incumbent party advantage and increases policy uncertainty.

2 years ago

Essentials

US Consumer Inflation Expectations Unexpectedly Jump, Weighing On Sentiment

The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey delivered a negative surprise on Friday. A bigger-than-anticipated drop pushed the headline sentiment index down to a five-month low of 63. Weaker-than-expected assessments of…

2 years ago

FICC

Will The Dollar Break Out Or Break Down?

This week's Insight gauges the potential of a dollar breakout or breakdown and suggests a few trade ideas.

2 years ago

Essentials

Shelter Costs Drive Hotter-Than-Anticipated US Inflation

The US CPI report shows inflation was higher than anticipated in September. Although the headline index decelerated from 0.6% m/m to 0.4% m/m, it is above expectations of 0.3% m/m. The annual rate of change remains at 3.7% y/y – also above consensus estimates…

2 years ago

FICC

Get Ready For The Long Pause

Comments on recent Fedspeak, bond market moves and this morning’s CPI report.

2 years ago

Essentials

FOMC Minutes: Most Still See Upside Risks To Inflation

The minutes of the September FOMC meeting confirmed that the Fed intends to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. Although inflation has been moderating, participants continue to view it as unacceptably high and emphasized that they remain “highly…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

The Time To Buy Bonds

The sharp sell-off in long duration bonds (ticker TLT) has reached the collapsed 130-day complexity that implies a probable and playable rebound. More strategically, long-duration bonds yielding close to 5 percent are an excellent structural investment assuming central banks choose to slay inflation and the cost is a near-term recession. We discuss how to time and how to play the potential rebound.

2 years ago

Essentials

US Small Business Sentiment Deteriorates Again In September

US small business optimism deteriorated for the second consecutive month in September. The NFIB index weakened by 0.5 points to 90.8, slightly below expectations of a more muted decline to 91.0. The latest move brings the index further below the 49-year…

2 years ago

Essentials

China: Would A New Stimulus Round Boost Growth?

Dovish comments by several Fed officials contributed to a Treasury rally and improvement in sentiment towards risk assets on Tuesday. Globally, rumors that Beijing is planning to unleash more stimulus supported Chinese financial assets and global China plays.…

2 years ago

Policy

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