Fixed Income

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by less than anticipated in July, rising by 187 thousand versus expectations of 200 thousand. In addition, the June increase was revised down from 209 thousand to 185 thousand. Similarly, average weekly hours worked…

3 years ago

FICC

Don't Chase Yields Higher

Some thoughts on this week’s bear-steepening of the Treasury curve and this morning’s employment report.

3 years ago

Essentials

The Collapsed Complexity Of Stocks Versus Bonds Spells Danger For Goldilocks

The recent ‘Goldilocks’ stock market rally is predicated on the hope that developed countries really can kill inflation without killing their economies. But one important warning sign suggests that the rally has gone too far too fast, and is vulnerable to…

3 years ago

Essentials

A Mixed Message From Caterpillar

Caterpillar’s Q2 earnings results released on Tuesday beat consensus estimates by a wide margin. Second quarter profit of $2.92 billion ($5.67 per share) came in well above expectations of $2.38 billion ($4.46 per share). The stock jumped to an all time high…

3 years ago

Essentials

Fitch US Downgrade: AA+ Is The New AAA

US financial markets were dealt a summer shock yesterday with Fitch Ratings lowering its sovereign credit rating on the US to AA+ from AAA. This brings the rating down to the same level as that of S&P, which announced its own US downgrade nearly twelve years…

3 years ago

CoreMacro

A Seasonal Illusion Threatens Goldilocks Markets

Collapsed complexity, plus the unwinding of favourable base effects and favourable seasonal adjustments to the inflation and jobs numbers, all pose a danger to the Goldilocks market.

3 years ago

Essentials

Is The RBA Done With Rate Hikes?

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at 4.1% on Tuesday, surprising expectations of a 25bps increase. Governor Philip Lowe’s statement underscores that the decision “will provide further time to assess the impact of” the 4 percentage…

3 years ago

Essentials

July In Review

The performance of global financial markets continued to improve in July, with most of the major financial assets we track generating positive abnormal returns for the second consecutive month. Asian markets led this dynamic with Chinese investable stocks and…

3 years ago

CoreMacro

Is There A Bullish Case For EM ex-China? (Part 1)

Special Report

Some investors have thrown in the towel on investing in Chinese equities, instead deploying capital in EM ex-China – or at least contemplating doing so. This report examines the merits of investing in EM ex-China stocks and concludes that EM – whether including or excluding China - will continue underperforming DM equities.

3 years ago

Portfolio

Monthly Portfolio Update: Slower Inflation, Then Slower Growth

History suggests that a “soft landing” is highly unlikely after such an aggressive Fed tightening cycle. The rally could continue for a little longer but, on the 12-month horizon, market risks are very skewed to the downside.

3 years ago

Fixed Income

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