Economy
The acceleration in US 10-year Treasury yields to pre-pandemic levels is generating concerns about the risks to equities. This is especially relevant given that real yields appear to be bottoming. While the Fed remains consistent in communicating its…
The January print for US producer prices surprised to the upside with gains in both goods (driven by energy) and services, pushing up headline PPI to 1.3% m/m. January’s surge marks the largest monthly increase since the start of the index in December 2009,…
US retail sales came in at a blockbuster 5.3% m/m in January, eclipsing consensus expectations of a 1.1% m/m increase following a dismal 1.0% m/m decline in December. Similarly, the control group, which excludes autos, gas, building materials and food…
The rise in bond yields is likely to continue, independent of the Fed’s messaging. The positive stance on yields rests on the strength of the US economy. The cyclical sectors of the economy are roaring and deflationary risks are ebbing, which historically…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, health care remains a top priority of the Democratic Party, which will hurt health care stocks. The health care debate over the past decade reflected the broad post-Cold War debate in the US over the…
News that China is once more considering export restrictions on rare earth minerals in an effort to harm US defense contractors, is just another instance of US-China tensions. China’s outsized influence on the global supply of rare earths (controlling 80% of…
The widening in US swap spreads has garnered attention among many market commentators. The fear is that like in 2008 or in March 2020, wider swap spreads foretell major market troubles in the near future. While a correction remains likely in an expensive and…
February’s reading of the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany shows a surge in optimism about the economic outlook. The expectations index jumped nearly 10 points to 71.2, significantly beating consensus expectations of a slight decline to 59.5.…
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service delved into the recent Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS). The net percent of domestic respondents to the SLOS that tightened standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans (measured as an average…
