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Developed Countries

The European Yield Curve Will Invert

The ECB will continue to lift rates due to sticky inflation and a tight labor market. Will it be enough to push long-term German yields higher?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Will US Consumers Help Keep The Economy Afloat?
On the surface, the US retail sales report for September was weaker than expected. The level of overall retail sales was unchanged – a slowdown from 0.4% m/m in August and disappointing expectations of a 0.2% m/m increase. However, this headline figure…
Daily Insights
On The Signal From The GDP Now Estimate
Output from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model is often used to obtain a timely read of economic conditions in the US. The GDPNow model has been consistently predicting positive quarter-on-quarter growth for Q3. Its latest estimate on Friday suggests that GDP…
Daily Insights
A Tactical Bounce?
Following a six-day stretch of falling equity prices, the S&P 500 jumped by 2.6% on Thursday. The timing of the abrupt reversal was curious. It occurred on the day of the hotter-than-anticipated September CPI inflation report. The initial sharp selloff…
Daily Insights
A Beautiful Slowdown?
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the kinked Phillips curve framework predicts that inflation may fall fairly painlessly over the coming months. According to the kinked Phillips curve framework if we are on the steep side of…
Daily Insights
A Chartbook: Balance Of Payments Across EM And DM

A country’s external balance remains one of the key pillars of the longer-term trend for the exchange rate. In this week’s report, we look at the developments in global basic balances, and their implications for currency strategy.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Another Hotter-Than-Expected US CPI Report In September
US headline CPI growth accelerated to 0.4% m/m in September from 0.1% m/m, surpassing expectations of a milder 0.2% m/m increase. The core measure excluding food and energy grew at the same rate as August (0.6% m/m) but still exceeded the 0.4% m/m…
Daily Insights
Good News Is Bad News?
The US economic surprise index – which measures the extent to which the economic data is either beating or missing economists’ forecasts – has recently moved back into positive territory. A move above zero indicates that economists have been overly…
Daily Insights
Three Warnings From The UK’s ‘Near Death Experience’
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the UK’s near death experience sends three salutary warnings to all investors. Warning 1: Beware ‘Hidden Leverage’ Hidden leverage is not unique to liability-driven investment (LDI) funds, nor to…
Daily Insights
Markets Vs. Planners: How Will Oil Be Priced?
Special Report

The G7’s attempt to insert itself in the oil-price-formation process performed by global trading markets will distort markets and the signals driving production, consumption and investment. The G7 will need a face-saving off-ramp to ditch this planner-based proposal. We expect Brent prices to move toward our expectations of $105/bbl in 4Q22 and $118/bbl in 2023, and remain long the XOP ETF.

Commodity & Energy Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken, Ashwin Shyam

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