Developed Countries
BCA Research’s Counterpoint service concludes that excess job vacancies in the US and UK largely reflect a shortage of labor supply, making a recession more likely. There are three potential paths to a soft landing: First, if the missing millions in the labor…
Preliminary estimates indicate that Japan’s manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.4 in November from 51.8 in October, marking the first monthly contraction since mid-2020. The service sector also stagnated from previously expansionary levels. Notably, composite new…
Preliminary estimates suggest a bifurcation between European countries’ and other DM economies’ manufacturing and services activity took place in November. Eurozone manufacturing PMI improved by 0.9 points to 47.3 and held up from October’s levels for…
In a widely anticipated move, the RBNZ delivered an outsized 75bp hike and lifted the official cash rate to 4.25%, following five consecutive 50bp increases this year. It also provided guidance for further tightening ahead. Like in many DM economies, both the…
BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service concludes that despite airlines having staged an impressive recovery this year, pent-up demand for travel will fade and headwinds from slowing growth and high inflation will intensify. Our US Equity colleagues argue…
Stay defensive until recession risks are verifiably dispelled. Favor government bonds over stocks.
In this Special Report, we consider what some common monetary policy rules are recommending for the major central banks and derive conclusions on duration strategy and country allocation for bond investors. We conclude that rate hike expectations in most countries may appear appropriate given the current global backdrop of high inflation and low unemployment, but look elevated on a forward-looking basis versus slowing global growth and peaking global inflation.
Preliminary estimates indicate that Euro Area consumer confidence increased by 3.6 points to -23.9 in November, surpassing expectations of a more muted recovery. This second consecutive month of improvement comes on the heels of a consumption-driven surprise…
After declining 9% in the first ten months of the year, CHF/USD has rallied 5% so far in November amid broad-based dollar weakness. More generally, on a trade-weighted basis, the CHF has performed relatively well in 2022, returning 5% YTD. Tight monetary…
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy and US Bond Strategy services conclude that developed market interest rates are too low given the current pace of economic growth and inflation, but too high relative to their expectation for both variables to slow…