Developed Countries
Stocks have always underperformed bonds ahead of recessions, even during the inflationary 1970s. So, the current absence of underperformance of stocks versus bonds indicates that the markets are not yet priced for a recession. The main driver of stock versus…
Core CPI rose sequentially in January compared to December, but we don’t see this as the beginning of a new trend. Disinflation is very much still in the cards for the US economy between now and the end of the year.
The backdrop for corporate bonds is turning more risky after the spread tightening seen over the past few months in the US and Europe. A tour of our favorite corporate spread valuation metrics on both sides of the Atlantic suggests a worsening cyclical risk/reward tradeoff for both investment grade and high-yield bonds, especially in the US.
US headline CPI inflation eased slightly from 6.5% y/y to 6.4% y/y in January – above consensus estimates of a greater decline to 6.2% y/y. Similarly, core inflation’s moderation from 5.7% y/y to 5.6% y/y was a slight disappointment to expectations it would…
Over the past few months, Canadian employment gains have been a source of positive surprise. January’s 150k increase (10 times higher than expectations) is just the latest in a series of strong beats. Although the initial massive October (108k) and December…
The reported 517k surge in nonfarm payrolls in January has caused some market commentators to question the accuracy of this figure. The decline in the surveys’ response rate is among the factors being raised – alongside seasonal adjustments and new population…
As the Q4-22 earnings season draws to a close with 344 of the S&P 500 companies reporting as of February 10th, we can take stock of the results. According to Refinitiv/I/B/E/S: Earnings Season By Numbers Earnings growth: Year-over-year blended growth rate for…
According to BCA Research’s US bond Strategy service at its current pace, the Fed’s QT program will continue for at least the next 12 months, and possibly longer. Fed Governor Christopher Waller outlined the Fed’s current thinking about its balance sheet…
Data released on Monday shows Swiss inflation reaccelerated and came in above consensus estimates in January. Headline CPI inflation rose from 2.8% y/y to 3.3% y/y, exceeding expectations of 3.1% y/y. Notably core CPI inflation broke above the Swiss National…
Australian material stocks have been outperforming the overall Aussie equity market since the beginning of November, climbing 29% over this period. Unsurprisingly, these gains coincide with the latest rally in industrial metal prices. These trends reflect…