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Developed Countries

Resetting The Expectations Bar
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, the near-term consensus outlook has grudgingly improved but is still excessively bearish. Economic surprises will continue to boost stocks until a 2023 recession is fully priced out. On May 4th,…
Daily Insights
US Services ISM Disappoints
The ISM PMI sent a disappointing signal about US service sector activity in May. The headline index unexpectedly fell from 51.9 to 50.3 – the weakest level since December and surprising expectations of an improvement to 52.4. The details of the release were…
Daily Insights
US-China Tensions Are Still High
The Biden administration reached out to China to try to reduce tensions over the month of May, attracting interest from the investment community, though our Geopolitical Strategists believe the US and China cannot agree to a genuine strategic détente until…
Daily Insights
The Euro Is Here To Stay
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, although the ECB faces important challenges in the coming year, its success in maintaining price stability and in preserving the euro’s integrity are bullish for the euro because it makes…
Daily Insights
Top Of The Range

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2023.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Happy 25th Birthday, ECB
Special Report

It is easy to claim that the ECB is failing in light of today’s elevated inflation readings. Yet, the reality is more subtle and the ECB’s performance lays the ground for stronger growth ahead.

European Investment Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy
Client Q&A

In response to client questions, we offer our view on the purported link between tech stocks and interest rates, the similarities between the S&L Crisis and the current banking turmoil and the near-term outlook for consensus economic expectations.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Style Chart Pack

The S&P 500 performance was flat in May if not for the strong performance of a small cohort of mega-caps, aided by exposure to AI. Earnings and sales growth are contracting but analysts expect a rebound into a yearend, which is already priced in. Yet, inflation is still elevated, and the job market is stubbornly tight – rates will stay much higher for longer, eventually ending the party. Until then, the lopsided equity rally may continue.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
US Unemployment Rate Rises, Nonfarm Payrolls Increase
On the surface, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report delivered a strong positive surprise. Establishment survey results reveal that employment increased by 339 thousand in May – above both the upwardly revised 294 thousand gain in April as well as consensus…
Daily Insights
Will UK Equities Continue Underperforming?
In our May In Review Insight, we showed that last month, UK stocks posted the lowest z-score among all major global equity markets, underperforming their Eurozone peers. What explains this relative weakness? The chart above reveals that the performance of…
Daily Insights

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