The Q3 earnings season will shift into high gear this Friday as banks report their financial results for the quarter. Among the trends that we’ll be watching for is insight on the outlook for profit margins. As our US…

  Oil prices are having a tough start to Q4. The price of brent has collapsed by 13% over the past week, with the bulk of the selloff occurring on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. Brent now stands below $85/bbl. There are…

  The Fed’s ‘Sahm rule’ real-time recession indicator signals a US recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percent from its low during the previous 12 months. But…

  The consumption rotation from goods to services has been one of the drivers of the global manufacturing downturn. Demand for durable goods normalized after the pandemic binge. Meanwhile, consumption of services benefitted from…

  Our Equity Analyzer service is a stock selection platform powered by the BCA Score, a 30-factor stock ranking system. The model tends to benefit from periods of uncertainty due to its high-quality and low volatility tilt. The…

  US durable goods order delivered a positive surprise on Wednesday. New orders unexpectedly expanded by 0.2% m/m in August, beating expectations of a 0.5% m/m decline. Similarly, core capital goods orders (a proxy for business…

  US dollar strength and rising real rates have created a toxic mix for the yellow metal over the past few months. Gold prices have fallen by 7.3% from the May peak and are on track to erase the year-to-date gains. Conditions…

  Investor sentiment has turned less optimistic. According to the latest AAII survey, the share of respondents with a bullish outlook has collapsed to 31.3% from its peak of 51.4% two months ago. It is now back down below its…

  Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) sent a pessimistic signal about the global manufacturing cycle on Monday. The 20.1% y/y contraction in August is broadly in line with July’s 20.3% y/y drop and came in…