Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

The July FOMC meeting proceeded pretty much as expected. The Fed hiked by 25 basis points, bringing the target range for the funds rate up to 5.25%-5.50%. The forward rate guidance included in the post-meeting statement was also unchanged from June. It…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Copper's China Problem

Over the past two months, copper has rallied alongside risk assets and now stands 9% above its late-May trough. Here, the outlook for China’s economy – which accounts for over half of global refined copper usage – is key to whether the red metal will continue…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Eurozone Corporate Loan Demand Falls By Most On Record

Results of the ECB’s bank lending survey (BLS) show the impact of the central bank’s aggressive tightening cycle on the region’s economy. Uncertainty about the economic outlook, borrower-specific dynamics, lower risk tolerance and higher cost of funding…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Further Upside For US Consumer Discretionary Stocks?

The US Consumer Discretionary sector has been one of the top winners since the equity rally broadened two months ago. Its 13% gain since the end of May outpaces the S&P 500’s rally by 3.8 percentage points This outperformance comes despite last week’s…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Value Has Returned To Short-Maturity TIPS

According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, inflation will fall during the next 12 months, but not by as much as markets expect. Investors should take advantage of this valuation opportunity by entering 2-year/10-year TIPS breakeven slope…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

No Irrigation-Style Stimulus From Beijing

China’s Politburo meeting delivered a disappointing signal about Beijing’s willingness to deliver meaningful stimulus. Although policymakers pledged support for domestic demand, consumer sentiment, and risk prevention, they underscored that the measures will…

3 年 3 年間 ago

FICC

GFIS Model Bond Portfolio Q2/2023 Review & Outlook: Positioning For Peak Interest Rates

In this report, we present our performance review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for the Q2/2023, and the outlook and scenario analysis for the next six months. The portfolio return exactly matched that of the benchmark index during the quarter, as modest gains on government bond allocations in the US, UK and core Europe completely offset losses on spread product underweights. Looking ahead, the portfolio is positioned to capitalize on an expected slowing of global growth over the rest of the year through an overweight stance on government bonds versus spread product and above-benchmark duration tilts in the US and core Europe.

3 年 3 年間 ago

Bonds

Essentials

South Korean Exports Decline As Semiconductor Sales Slump Continues

South Korean exports in the first 20 days of July corroborate the signal from Taiwanese export orders that Asian trade conditions remain weak. The former declined by -15.3% y/y, undoing the optimism following a 5.3% y/y increase in the first 20 days of June.…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

Euro Area Consumer Confidence Continues To Recover

Euro Area consumer confidence has been steadily recovering since it bottomed in September. Most recently, the -15.1 flash estimate for July surprised to the upside and marks its highest reading since February 2022 – ahead of the sharp deterioration following…

3 年 3 年間 ago

CoreMacro

Three Scenarios In Which The US Can Avoid A Recession

Although not our base case, there is a path for the US economy to avoid a recession over the next few years. We see the risks to stocks as tilted to the upside in the near term but to the downside over a 12-month horizon.

3 年 3 年間 ago

Global

Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

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