Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for the US economy, US stocks, and China’s contribution to global growth. On the outlook for the US economy, the majority of respondent (82%) expect…
In a Tuesday morning television interview, Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled that the Fed will not lift rates when it meets later this month. Specifically, Waller echoed language used by Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole conference by saying that recent…
The Global Manufacturing PMI suggests that although the global manufacturing downturn remains intact, the pace of deterioration slowed in August. The headline PMI index ticked up by 0.4 points to 49. In particular, the Output, New Orders, and New Export…
Friday’s US employment report suggests that the softening of the labor market is continuing at a steady pace. Although nonfarm payroll employment in June and July was revised down by 110 thousand, the 187 thousand increase in August came in above expectations…
US bond investment takeaways from this week’s PCE and employment releases.
The US Personal Income and Outlays report shows consumption remained resilient in July. Although personal income growth decelerated from 0.3% m/m to 0.2% m/m, spending accelerated from an upwardly revised 0.6% m/m to 0.8% m/m – above expectations of 0.7% m/m.…
Eurozone headline inflation surprised to the upside in August, confirming the signal from the preliminary German and Spanish releases. The year-on-year gauge was unchanged at 5.3% – surprising expectations of a deceleration to 5.1%. Similarly, the 0.6%…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, current monetary policy settings at the Fed and ECB risk pushing commodity and energy prices lower. Lower prices and higher rates will suppress capex and set the stage for higher inflation…
Stocks should continue to rally in the near term, but investors should prepare to turn more defensive towards the end of the year in advance of a recession in 2024.
Euro Area inflation data surprised to the upside on Wednesday. According to preliminary data, although Germany’s harmonized headline CPI inflation rate fell from 6.5% y/y to 6.4% y/y in August, it nevertheless came in above consensus estimates calling for…