Policy
Our US Political strategists assessed the magnitude of the Republican sweep and discuss the path ahead as they take control of Washington. The GOP sweep was a resounding victory as they also clinched the popular vote. The “Blue Wall” (Wisconsin, Michigan,…
The Bank of England cut its policy rate in line with expectations to 4.75%, but it signaled a more gradual pace of cuts as it increased its inflation forecast following last week’s budget. A 25 bps cut with hawkish guidance strikes the balance the BoE needed.…
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected yet introduced uncertainty on the timing of its next move. The statement was relatively unchanged, except for the removal of a segment from September highlighting they had gained greater confidence…
Will the prospect of expanding trade tensions lead to more Chinese stimulus, and create an opportunity for Chinese equities? Not necessarily, as the election results were already factored in our EM and China strategists’ views. The Trump victory is not a…
Given the charged atmosphere surrounding the US election, our Bank Credit Analyst colleagues investigate whether the Fed’s dovish pivot last December was politically motivated. The Fed’s actions appear overly dovish, but the answer lies deeper. Their dovish…
今後数か月で、日本の新政権は財政政策を緩和し、それが国内需要をわずかに押し上げるだろう。短期的には金融政策がさらに引き締まる可能性があるが、長期的にはそれほど強くはならない。地政学的環境が日本を緩和的な経済政策へと向かわせる。
いよいよ選挙当日が到来しました。いいえ、このメールに決定的な「銀の弾丸」とも言える予測は含まれていません。これは単に、誰が勝っても選挙が市場にどのような影響を与えるかについての当社の長期予測に過ぎません。
The October US jobs report had mixed signals and was skewed by hurricanes and industrial strikes. Unemployment met expectations by staying unchanged at 4.1%, although it rose nearly 0.1 percentage point on an unrounded basis. Nonfarm payrolls were flat with…
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded one point in October to 50.3. This was in line with the NBS PMIs from earlier this week, which also showed a modest rebound. We are looking for a turning point in China as the government unrolls stimulus measures.…