Inflation/Deflation

Probabilities For The US Primary Election

特別レポート

Stocks perform worse in presidential election years than average years, especially in the first half of the year, and especially if the ruling party ends up falling from power. Investors should take risk off the table until the unemployment rate peaks.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Pro-Growth Policy Hurts The Polish Zloty

The Polish central bank delivered a larger-than-anticipated 75 basis point rate cut on Wednesday – slashing the policy rate to 6%, versus expectations of 6.5%. The aggressive move marks the first rate cut following a 11-month-long pause after the NBP lifted…

2 年 2 年間 ago

CoreMacro

Carbon Credits: Watch Out For The Red Light

特別レポート

Carbon credits as an asset class are becoming increasingly investable. Given that the structural bull case for this asset class is compelling, strategic investors should long carbon credits. However tactical investors should book profits or consider merits of a short position, since prices are likely to correct over the next 12-24 months.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Global

Essentials

Goldilocks Is Just A Fairy Tale

According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, Goldilocks is just a fairy tale. In the near-term, this will be negative for stocks, neutral for bonds, and positive for the dollar. The Fed can win the war against inflation, but not without much higher…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

The BoC Stands Pat

As expected, the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at 5% on Wednesday. In particular, the central bank highlighted that domestic economic growth deteriorated. Indeed, last week’s GDP release showed the Canadian economy unexpectedly contracted…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Fed’s Waller Signals Pause

In a Tuesday morning television interview, Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled that the Fed will not lift rates when it meets later this month. Specifically, Waller echoed language used by Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole conference by saying that recent…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

The RBA Stands Pat

The AUD was the worst performing currency on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate target unchanged at 4.1% for the third consecutive month. In particular, outgoing Governor Philip Lowe underscored that the uncertain economic outlook…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Goldilocks?

Friday’s US employment report suggests that the softening of the labor market is continuing at a steady pace. Although nonfarm payroll employment in June and July was revised down by 110 thousand, the 187 thousand increase in August came in above expectations…

2 年 2 年間 ago

FICC

More Evidence For The Soft Landing

US bond investment takeaways from this week’s PCE and employment releases.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Bonds

Portfolio

Monthly Portfolio Update: Recession Postponed – But Not Avoided

A global recession continues to be likely over the next 12 months. The impact of tighter monetary policy is slowly being felt. Government bonds look increasingly attractive as a safe haven.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Inflation/Deflation

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