Inflation/Deflation
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, while economic growth will be a much more important driver of Treasury yields going forward than supply, the Treasury department did make several announcements on Wednesday that will mitigate any negative…
As expected, the Bank of England kept its bank rate unchanged at 5.25% at Thursday's MPC meeting with six members voting in favor of the decision and the remaining three preferring a 25bps rate increase. Governor Andrew Bailey stressed at the post-meeting…
As expected, the Fed stood pat at its Wednesday meeting, maintaining the target for the fed funds rate at 5.25-5.50%. The minimal changes made to the Fed Statement were to emphasize the strong pace of economic activity in Q3, to characterize job gains as…
Our reaction to today’s FOMC meeting and the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement.
High interest rates will eventually cause growth to slow. Signs of stress are already starting to show. Stay cautiously positioned.
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, 2012 provides a tentative roadmap of the next Eurozone manufacturing cycle. The resemblance between today and 2012 is uncanny. The overlap matches the current cycle down to a couple of…
The Bank of Japan adjusted the language of its Monetary Policy Statement on Tuesday to indicate that it will allow greater flexibility it its yield curve control policy (YCC). It indicated that although the target level of 10-year JGB yields remains unchanged…
Eurozone economic data sent a positive signal on Monday. Preliminary CPI releases from Germany and Spain show price pressures continue to moderate. In Germany, the harmonized index declined by 0.2% m/m while the annual rate of change eased from 4.3% y/y to…
The European money market curve anticipates three rate cuts by October 2024. This pricing is appropriate considering the outlook for European growth next year. BCA’s Europe strategist expect a recession in the second half of the year, which will force the ECB…
The US PCE report confirmed the signal from Thursday's preliminary GDP release that consumer spending was resilient in Q3. Although personal income growth unexpectedly slowed, both nominal and real spending growth accelerated and beat expectations in…