Inflation/Deflation

According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy and European Investment Strategy services, Spain’s economy is outperforming that of the Eurozone thanks to lower inflation and exploding tourism activity. These trends will not be affected by the results of…

3 年 3 年間 ago

CoreMacro

Spain's Election: Neither Sanchism Nor Francoism

特別レポート

Spain is holding a general election this Sunday and the country is likely to veer to the right. Will this shift threaten European unity and herald a new period of tensions in the Eurozone?

3 年 3 年間 ago

Europe

Essentials

UK Core Inflation Cools From 31-Year High

Softer-than-anticipated CPI inflation caused UK Gilts to rally and the British pound to weaken on Wednesday. Headline CPI inflation fell from 8.7% y/y to a 15-month low of 7.9% y/y in June – a greater decline than anticipations of 8.2% y/y. On a…

3 年 3 年間 ago

CoreMacro

On Breakouts And Breakdowns

In this report, we dissect which markets have broken out and which ones have not, and reflect what this entails for our global macro view. Also, we analyze how the S&P 500 has been taking its cues from a change in the inflation trend. Yet, inflation dynamics are complex, and a falling inflation rate does not mean that the inflation menace has been eliminated.

3 年 3 年間 ago

Emerging Markets

Essentials

On Improving US Homebuilder Confidence

Results of the NAHB survey shows US homebuilder sentiment inched further above 50 to a 13-month high of 56 in July. Its ongoing rise above 50 indicates that net sentiment is becoming increasingly favorable. That said, homebuilders pared back some optimism…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

US Retail Sales Continue To Expand In June

US retail sales delivered a mixed signal on Tuesday. On the one hand, overall retail sales growth decelerated from 0.5% m/m to 0.2% m/m in June– disappointing expectations of 0.5% m/m. Spending on retail sales excluding the volatile auto and gas retailers…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

The Euro And Global Growth

After US inflation slowed down markedly, EUR/USD broke out to 1.12, which constitutes a 16-month high. The euro is benefiting from the market expectation that the Fed will soon be done with its hikes while the ECB’s monetary tightening campaign remains more…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

Betting On A Less Hawkish BoC

Canada’s CPI release showed headline CPI inflation cooled from 3.4% y/y to 2.8% in June – below estimates calling for a less pronounced moderation to 3.0% y/y. This marks inflation’s first return to the Bank of Canada’s 1%-3% percent inflation target range…

3 年 3 年間 ago

CoreMacro

How Large Can The Eurozone / US Divergence Get?

In recent months, the European and US economies have greatly diverged, with the Euro Area massively disappointing while the US has surprised to the upside. Can this dichotomy continue or is it Europe’s turn to shine?

3 年 3 年間 ago

Europe

Essentials

The Signal From Dr. Copper

Copper rallied to a two-month high by the end of last week. Importantly, this move did not occur in isolation. It coincides with greater optimism about the prospects of a soft landing. Indeed, the US economic surprise index is solidly in positive territory…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Inflation/Deflation

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