Fiscal
パウエルはソフトランディングを実現できるか？いくつかの兆候はその可能性を示している。当社は、当社のネガティブな見方がなぜ誤っていたのかを検証し、不況を回避させた4つの成長エンジンを分析する。これらの力のうち半分は依然として持続しているが、残り半分は勢いを失っている。これで景気が持ちこたえる可能性はあるものの、我々は防御的なポジショニングを維持する。エクイティは非常に穏やかな結果を織り込んでいる。一方、トランプ勝利を見越した金利上昇は景気をソフトランディングの道筋から逸らしている。トランプが当選した場合に利回りがさらに上振れする可能性に備え、デュレーションをニュートラルに引き下げることでヘッジする。
Germany’s economy has lagged that of the rest of Europe for nearly 10 years. So have German stocks. Investors are extrapolating these trends to bet on the country’s deindustrialization. Could Germany manage to beat dismal expectations?
While moving in the right direction, China’s latest stimulus measures are falling short of the mark to reflate the economy. The latest rumors extend this trend. News agencies reported discussions of a CNY 10 trillion bond issuance over three years. Six…
Our US Political Strategy colleagues now see 55% odds of a Trump victory, with odds of a Republican sweep at 47%. As odds of a contested election are rising, they built on their 2020 work to provide answers for next week’s election: Won’t the economy give…
Germany’s problems are well known: Demographics, Chinese competition, underinvestment, energy dependence, and constrained fiscal policy. Our European Investment Strategy colleagues believe this bad news is priced in. More optimism is warranted as cyclical…
Savings must either flow into domestic investment, or abroad. Saving too much, with nowhere to funnel it, is breaking China’s economic model according to our Global Investment Strategy colleagues. As China's share of global manufacturing climbed to 30%,…
In this report, we discuss why we are lifting our US recession probability from 60% to 65% and explain why China’s latest stimulus announcements are welcome, but probably are “too little, too late.”
The US election is tightening in its final weeks, and the latest polls challenge our Geopolitical Strategy’s base case of a Democratic White House. The original thesis was built on the premise of a Democratic incumbent advantage, after only four years in…
Chinese activity data met expectations, with Q3 GDP printing at 4.6% year-on-year, decelerating from 4.7% in Q2 but below the 5% 2024 growth target. Other metrics such as industrial production and retail sales beat expectations and marginally improved in…