Emerging Markets

多国籍企業はサプライチェーンを中国以外へ拡大しようとしているが、移転プロセスは予想より遅れている。しかし今後数年で、地政学的緊張、中国のビジネス環境の変化、そして中国の生産者からの競争激化が、多国籍企業の中国からの撤退を加速させる可能性がある。

China missed the chance to change course on economic policy and now it faces rising social instability and western protectionism. This policy approach implies it is not afraid of escalating strategic conflicts in East Asia. Investors should continue to underweight Greater Chinese assets. Any US-China détente will come later rather than sooner.

The prices of multiple financial assets have failed to break above their technical resistances. When this occurs, a breakdown ensues. In brief, global risk assets remain vulnerable. We are upgrading Chinese onshore stocks from neutral to overweight and offshore ones from underweight to neutral within EM and global equity portfolios.