Capex

Copper prices are vulnerable to the downside in the coming months on a narrowing global supply-demand deficit. We expect that copper prices will plummet by 15-20% from the current level. However, the lingering structural supply deficit will put a floor under copper prices after this correction.

China’s semiconductor demand and imports will continue to contract in 2023H1. Despite economic reopening, Chinese consumers will hold back spending on smartphones, personal computers (PC) and other consumer electronics over the next six months. Meanwhile, overseas customers will continue to reduce their orders for electronic goods made in China following the excessive consumption experienced during the pandemic. There is more downside for both Chinese and global semiconductor share prices. We recommend a relative trade: long Chinese semiconductor stocks / short global semi stocks.

Today we are publishing a charts-only report focused on the key macroeconomic data as well as each GICS1 S&P 500 sector. Many of the charts are self-explanatory; to some we have added a short commentary. The charts cover macro, valuations, fundamentals, technicals, and the uses of cash. Our goal is to equip you with all the data you need to make investment decisions in these sectors.

Relative to beaten-down expectations, global growth will surprise on the upside in 2023. Investors should overweight equities for now but look to turn more defensive in the second half of the year.

We explore the eight major themes that will define economic and market trends for Europe next year.

In this <i>Strategy Outlook</i>, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out next year and beyond.

European asset prices have rebounded sharply since September. Can this trend survive in the face of a weak Chinese economy where deflation prevails?

What is the outlook for the European housing market amid rising mortgage rates and the energy crisis? Does housing represent a systemic risk? Can households weather the storm? And what are the opportunities, if any?

In this report, we identify the Norwegian krone as a currency that could outperform especially at the crosses, irrespective of the broad dollar trend.

While there is much variability in company profitability, earnings contractions have commenced and appear to be broad-based. We expect earnings growth to deteriorate further into year-end. Companies are reporting concerns about the trajectory of future economic growth and the uncertainty that it brings. Consumer spending on goods has slowed sharply, while spending on discretionary services has surprised on the upside. Business-to-business spending is still strong.