Business Cycles
The US Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) continues to show the impact of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Banks were still tightening lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I), commercial real estate (CRE), home equity…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service upgrades Swedish government bonds to neutral from underweight within European fixed-income portfolios. The Riksbank kept its policy rate steady at 4% last week. Governor Erik Thedéen and the Riksbank…
Treasury yields continued to push higher on Monday, bringing the total increase over the past two trading days to 29bps. The move comes on the back of strong economic data releases indicating that conditions in the US are resilient. Notably, Friday’s…
The soft landing and rate cuts narrative is being priced out, and the S&P 500 is overvalued and getting overbought. The Magnificent Seven are about to get a new moniker on the back of performance dispersion. However, without the cohort, S&P 500 earnings would have been even deeper in the red.
In this Insight our Equity Analyzer team explores how the S&P 500 behaves when the Fed Funds Target Rate drops by 25bps – 150bps within a single year. The current dot plot is signaling 75bps of cuts by the end of the year, the mid-point of the range.…
The S&P/TSX Venture Index is a micro-cap index of Canadian companies listed on the TSX Venture Stock Exchange. Nearly two thirds of the index is comprised of material and energy stocks, making the index exposed to fluctuations in commodity markets.…
After falling throughout most of the second half of 2023, the US economic surprise index has surged over the past few weeks, indicating that economic conditions are firm at the start of the year. Indeed, Manufacturing PMIs delivered a positive signal last…
The US Employment report came in well above consensus expectations on Friday, delivering a strong positive signal on labor market conditions in January. The 353 thousand increase in nonfarm payroll employment beat expectations of a slowdown to 185 thousand.…
The Saudi economy is facing internal and external headwinds. The geopolitical conflict is also escalating in the Middle East. EM equity portfolios should stay neutral on Saudi stocks. EM sovereign credit portfolios should upgrade Saudi Arabia from neutral to overweight.
As expected, the Bank of England voted to keep its bank rate unchanged at 5.25% on Thursday – maintaining policy on hold for the fourth consecutive meeting. Two of the nine MPC members voted in favor of a 25bps rise (one less than in December) while one…