BCA指標/モデル
BCA developed the Debt Supercycle thesis in the 1970s to characterize the postwar surge in private sector indebtedness. Because rising debt burdens increased economic vulnerability, policymakers were forced to pursue increasingly reflationary measures after…
The message from the latest Beige Book release is confirming that US demand is showing signs of slowing down. Of the 12 Federal Reserve districts, 2 reported modest economic growth, 8 reported economic activity was slightly up, and 2 indicated flat economic…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, there is only a narrow path to a soft landing. Our colleagues estimate a mere 20% chance that the US will avoid a recession before the end of 2025. The US unemployment rate is a highly…
The signs of an approaching recession are starting to emerge. We will turn tactically defensive once they all fall into place.
Nonfinancial corporate balance sheets are generally in good shape, but there are signs of deterioration at the bottom-end of the credit spectrum. We present evidence showing that credit deterioration at the bottom-end of the credit spectrum has a habit of migrating upwards.
The 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate has been a reliable US recession indicator. Indeed, there has never been a case in the post-war era when it has increased by more than a third of a percentage point from its cycle low without a recession…
Emergency pandemic policies elongated the lag between Fed rate hikes and an observable slowdown in the economy. Notably, fiscal transfers and constrained consumption options endowed households with more than $2 trillion of savings they would not otherwise…
German Bunds have cheapened considerably, and the ECB is about to start cutting rates. Does this combination guarantee immediate profits from buying these bonds?
In its latest report, BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service provides an update on its MacroQuant model. The overall equity score declined in April, finishing the month at the 29th percentile, which is enough to prompt the model to assign US…