自動車メーカー

Both EV and Green Energy themes still hold strategic promise for investors, posing large upside, despite prevailing macro headwinds. While both themes have yet to claw back their pandemic peaks, a broadening of the rally supports a run for both, even in the face of high valuations.

Several signs have emerged that the “bad news is good news” rally has run its course. Despite deteriorating economic data, the Fed is expected to maintain its “higher for longer” stance, disappointing the market. A rate cut is likely is only in case of a severe downturn, but that will not offer support to equities, until earnings growth bottoms. We recommend shifting a portfolio toward a defensive stance, and away from cyclicals at this juncture. We downgrade Auto to an underweight, and Capital Goods and Energy Equipment and Services to an equal weight.

特別レポート

Global demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) remains in a long-term uptrend, propelled by falling battery prices, improved driving range and an upgraded charging infrastructure. That said, diminishing policy support in China and Europe will spark a drop in the growth rate of global NEV sales to about 35% this year, down from about 60% last year. Global NEV-related stocks are likely to rise on a structural basis, but we recommend that investors wait for a better entry point given that valuations remain high.

Dear client, We will not be publishing the US Equity Strategy next week, as I will be participating in BCA Investment Conference. We will return to our regular publishing schedule on September 19, 2022. Kind Regards, Irene Tunkel   Executive Summary Most Thematic ETFs Are Far Off Their Pandemic Peaks In today’s sector Chart I-pack report we recap our structural investment themes. EV Revolution: The EV cohort benefits from a structural transformation of the automobile industry that is further supported by favorable legislative tailwinds, and shifting consumer preferences. Generation Z: Generation Zers are coming of age and wield an increasing influence over consumer trends. Cybersecurity: The pandemic-driven shift to remote work, broad-based migration to cloud computing and increasing geopolitical tensions, are all structural forces that will ensure a healthy demand pipeline for cybersecurity companies. Green And Clean: Green energy is becoming cheaper to produce, which supports a wider adaptation of green technologies. Green tech also enjoys favorable legislative tailwinds that are coming on the back of rising geopolitical tensions, the ongoing energy crisis, and climate change action. Renewables help to diversify energy sources and offer a path towards energy security. Bottom Line: Thematic investments that capture the latest technological breakthroughs present unprecedented long-term investment opportunities for investors who can stomach short-term volatility. Feature This week we are sending you a Sector Chart I-Pack, which offers macro, fundamentals, valuations, technicals, and uses of cash charts for each sector. In the front section of this publication, we will overview recent equity performance and provide a recap of the US Equity Strategy structural investment themes. August – When The Rally Came To A Stall As we predicted in the “What Will Bring This Rally To A Halt?” report, the “inflation is turning, and the Fed will be dovish” rally has come to a screeching halt. The S&P 500 was down 8% in August as investors finally believe that Jay Powell’s Fed is hell-bound on extinguishing inflation even if it means squelching economic growth (Chart I-1). The message from Jackson Hole was very much Mario Draghi-like: “whatever it takes.” The market reaction was swift and brutal. The rally winners were in the epicenter of the sell-off that ensued on the back of Powell’s comments. Invesco QQQ Trust is already down nearly 9% off its August 16 peak, while Ark Innovation (ARKK) is down 13% (Chart I-2).  We expect that equities will continue to revert to their pre-summer lows. Chart I-1Summer Rally Winners Are At The Epicenter Of The Sell-off Chart I-2Most Thematic ETFs Are Far Off Their Pandemic Peaks With rates on the rise again, last week we shifted our overweight of Growth and underweight of Value to a neutral allocation. The last few months have been a rollercoaster. However, long-term investors may successfully survive the grind by resolutely sticking to some of the winning structural investment themes and ignoring short-term volatility. The fact that many themes are now more than 50% off their pandemic highs may indicate an opportune entry point. EV Revolution We initiated the EV Revolution theme in June 2021. Since then, the theme has outperformed the S&P 500 by 19%. The Auto and Components industry group is in the middle of a momentous transition to electric and autonomous vehicle manufacturing, thanks to technological advances in battery storage, AI, and radars. These technological breakthroughs help overcome most of the obstacles to the wide adoption of EVs. Multiple new entrants develop charging networks. Driving ranges are also rapidly increasing – Lucid promises a 500-mile range compared to Tesla’s 350. Couple that with the rising price of gas, the aging vehicle fleet, and the expectation that EVs will approach sticker parity with gas-powered cars as soon as 2023 (Chart I-3)  and there is no turning back to gas-guzzling vehicles. LMC Automotive forecasts that by 2031, EVs will reach 17 million units. Chart I-3EVs Will Reach Price Parity With ICEs In 2023 The entire EV cohort also benefits from favorable legislative tailwinds, thanks to this administration’s support of decarbonization. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) includes approximately $370 billion in clean energy spending, as well as EV tax credits for both new and used cars. In addition, executive action by President Biden has tightened fuel economy standards. California has mandated a complete switch to EV vehicles by 2035. The surge in EV Capex and R&D spending will boost the entire supply chain, which consists of chip manufacturers, battery and lidar R&D, part manufacturers, and charging networks. Many of these companies are still small. An ETF may be the best way to capture the theme (Table I-1). Table I-1EV/AV ETFs Generation Z: The Digital Natives The GenZ theme, which we identified exactly a year ago, has collapsed since the beginning of the market downturn and is down 47%. Its success was at the root of its demise – it captured overcrowded names most popular among GenZers, who are avid investors (Chart I-4). However, the theme is not “dead,” as a new cohort of Americans is coming of age, and they are not shy about it. Generation Z in the US includes 62 million people born between 1997 and 2012 (Chart I-5). With $143B in buying power in the US alone making up nearly 40% of all consumer sales, Gen Z wields increasing influence over consumer trends. This is the first generation of digital natives—they simply can’t remember the world without the internet. They are the early adopters of the new digital ways to bank, get medical treatments, and learn. Gen Z is joining the workforce and replacing retiring baby boomers. Chart I-4Gen Zers Are Avid Investors... Chart I-5Gen Zers Are Taking Over Gen Z is an umbrella theme that captures many other prominent themes, such as Fintech (Paypal & Social Finance), Crypto (COIN), Meme-investing (HOOD), Gaming and Alternative Reality (GAMR & ESPO), and Online Dating. But GenZers have a few behavioral quirks that make them different even from Millennials: Quality-Over-Price Shoppers: Gen Z was found to be less price sensitive when buying products, choosing quality over price. Lululemon (LULU) and Goose (GOOS) are among Gen Z’s favorites. Healthy Lifestyle: Gen Z is a “green” generation that deeply cares about the planet, loves the outdoors and traveling, and is crazy about pets. This is also a generation that prizes a healthy lifestyle and working out: Beyond Meat (BYND), Planet Fitness (PLNT), and Yeti (YETI). Generation Sober Chooses Cannabis: GenZers perceive hard liquor and tobacco as bad for their health. Curiously, marijuana is considered “healthy.” MSOS, CNBS, YOLO, and THCX are the biggest ETFs in this space. How To Invest In Gen Z? Gen Z is a nascent investment theme, so there are no ETFs available in the market yet. We propose that investors follow our Gen Z investment themes or replicate fully or partially our Gen Z basket. Cybersecurity: A Must-Have For Survival Despite its celebrity status, this is an industry that is still in the early innings of a growth cycle. The pandemic-driven shift to remote work, broad-based migration to cloud computing, development of the internet-of-things, and increasing geopolitical tensions create new targets for hackers who are after valuable data or just want to achieve maximum damage to the networks. Ubiquitous digitization requires increasingly more complex cyber defenses. With cybercrime costing the world nearly $600 billion each year and cyberattacks increasing in number and sophistication, the global cybersecurity market is expected to grow from $125 billion in 2020 to $175 billion by 2024. Both large and small businesses are yet to fully implement cybersecurity defenses. According to a survey by Forbes magazine, 55% of business executives plan to increase their budgets for cybersecurity in 2021 aiming to prevent malicious attacks. In response to the numerous breaches, the current US administration is placing a high priority on defensive cyber programs. Since 2017, US government departments have seen the cybersecurity share of their basic discretionary funding rise steadily from 1.38% to 1.73%. These developments are a boon for cybersecurity stocks (Chart I-6 & Chart I-7 ), the sales of which are soaring (Chart I-8). Chart I-6Cybercrime Losses Spur Demand for Cybersecurity Chart I-7Stepped Up Government Spending Will Lift Cybersecurity Stocks Chart I-8Cybersecurity Sales Are Soaring We introduced cybersecurity as a structural investment theme back in October 2021. So far, the CIBR ETF, which we use as a proxy for the performance of the theme, has underperformed the S&P 500 by 11%. Monetary tightening has weighed on the performance of these companies as they tend to be younger, smaller, and less profitable than their S&P 500 counterparts, i.e., CIBR has a strong small-cap growth bias. However, with cybersecurity stocks down 26% off their November-2021 peak and valuation premium back to earth, now may be an opportune moment to add to the theme. After all, these stocks have tremendous growth potential, warranting a long-term position in most equity portfolios. There are several highly liquid ETFs powered by the cybersecurity theme, such as CIBR, BUG, and HACK, which can be excellent investment vehicles (Table I-2). Table I-2Cybersecurity ETFs Green And Clean We introduced the “Green and Clean” theme back in March. Since then, it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 22%, benefiting from this administration’s focus on the mitigation of climate change. Putin’s energy stand-off with Europe has also put the industry into the global spotlight. The development of renewables will help diversify energy sources and offer a path toward energy security. Thus, renewable energy and cleantech companies are at the core of the global push to increase energy security and contain climate change. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) expects renewables to scale up from 14% of total energy today to around 40% in 2030. Global annual additions of renewable power would triple by 2030 as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Solar and wind power will attract the lion’s share of investments. Over the past 20 years, this country has made significant strides in shifting its energy generation toward renewable sources away from fossil fuels, increasing the share of clean energy from 3.7% in 2000 to 10% in 2020 (Chart I-9). Chart I-9A Structural Trend The key reason for the proliferation of green energy generation is that renewable electricity is becoming cheaper than electricity produced by fossil fuels – according to IRENA, 62% of the added renewable power generation capacity had lower electricity costs than the cheapest source of new fossil fuel-fired capacity. Costs for renewable technologies continued to fall significantly over the past year (Chart I-10). Renewables are similar to traditional utility companies: They require a massive upfront investment, but also enjoy substantial operating leverage. As production capacity increases, the cost of energy generation falls. Solar power generation is a case in point (Chart I-11). Hence, we have a positive reinforcement loop: more usage begets even more usage, bolstering the economic case for transitioning to cleaner energy resources. Chart I-10R&D Is Paying Off Chart I-11Capacity Is Inversely Correlated To Prices Increased renewables adaptation is possible thanks to several technological advancements including improved battery storage, implementation of smart grid networks, and an increase in carbon capture activities. There is a host of ETFs that offer investors a wide range of choices for access to renewable energy and cleantech themes (Table I-3). These ETFs differ in geographic span, industry focus, liquidity, and cost, but all are viable investment options. Table I-3Clean Tech ETFs Bottom Line Thematic investments that capture the latest technological breakthroughs present unprecedented long-term investment opportunities. However, these investments come with a warning: Technological innovation themes are intrinsically risky as they are rarely immediately profitable and require both continuous investment and technological breakthroughs to succeed. Also, most technological innovation themes carry high exposure to the small-cap growth style and are sensitive to rising rates and slowing growth. As such, they are fickle over the short term but pay off over a longer investment horizon.   Irene Tunkel Chief Strategist, US Equity Strategy irene.tunkel@bcaresearch.com     S&P 500 Chart II-1Macroeconomic Backdrop Chart II-2Profitability Chart II-3Valuations And Technicals Chart II-4Uses Of Cash Communication Services Chart II-5Macroeconomic Backdrop Chart II-6Profitability Chart II-7Valuations And Technicals Chart II-8Uses Of Cash Consumer Discretionary Chart II-9C Macroeconomic Backdrop Chart II-10Profitability Chart II-11Valuations And Technicals Chart II-12Uses Of Cash Consumer Staples Chart II-13Macroeconomic Backdrop Chart II-14Profitability Chart II-15Valuations And Technicals Chart II-16Uses Of Cash Energy Chart II-17Macroeconomic Backdrop Chart II-18Profitability Chart II-19Valuations And Technicals Chart II-20Uses Of Cash Financials Chart II-21Macroeconomic Backdrop Chart II-22Profitability Chart II-23Valuations And Technicals Chart II-24Uses Of Cash Health Care Chart II-25Sector vs Industry Groups Chart II-26Profitability Chart II-27Valuations And Technicals Chart II-28Uses Of Cash Industrials Chart II-29Macroeconomic Backdrop Chart II-30Profitability Chart II-31Valuations And Technicals Chart II-32Uses Of Cash Information Technology Chart II-33Macroeconomic Backdrop Chart II-34Profitability Chart II-35Valuations And Technicals Chart II-36Uses Of Cash Materials Chart II-37Macroeconomic Backdrop Chart II-38Profitability Chart II-39Valuations And Technicals Chart II-40Uses Of Cash Real Estate Chart II-41Macroeconomic Backdrop Chart II-42Profitability Chart II-43Valuations And Technicals Chart II-44Uses Of Cash Utilities Chart II-45Macroeconomic Backdrop Chart II-46Profitability Chart II-47Valuations And Technicals Chart II-48Uses Of Cash Recommended Allocation Recommended Allocation: Addendum

Feature Clean energy names rallied yesterday on the back of the news that a reconciliation deal was struck to support Biden’s fiscal package. The deal, which was dubbed the “Inflation Reduction Act Of 2022”, includes approximately $370 billion in clean energy spending as well as EV tax credits for both new and used cars.  The bill has been sent to President Biden for his signature. The bill is a boon to two of our long-term investment themes: “EV Revolution” and “Is It Time To Invest Green And Clean?”. In both reports, we argued that both themes were to benefit from the favorable legislative tailwinds thanks to this administration’s focus on climate change prevention policies. Since its inception in June 2021, the EV theme has outperformed the S&P 500 by 15%, while the “Green and Clean” theme is up 14% since the April 2022 inauguration report. When it comes to investing in green technology and EV, we recommend investors continue to treat them as long-term thematic calls. Technological innovation themes are intrinsically risky: They are rarely immediately profitable and require both continuous investment and technological breakthroughs to succeed. As such, they are fickle over short term but pay off over a longer investment horizon. On a tactical basis both EV and clean energy stocks may be ripe for a pullback after a robust rally (Chart 2). Chart 1 Chart 2     Thematic themes are best captured either via an ETF or a custom basket. Green energy ETFs are TAN, FAN, RNRG, CTEC, RAYS, and WNDY. Electric vehicle ETFs are ARKQ, IDRIV, DRIV, and KARS (See appendix for details). Bottom Line: We reiterate our structural preference for green technology and EV stocks on the back of strong legislative support and a continuous push for innovation and affordability. Appendix Table 1 Table 2

特別レポート

Executive Summary Rebounding Chinese Auto Sales China’s stimulus for auto purchases and an easing global auto chip shortage will lead to about a 10% recovery in domestic auto sales in 2022H2 from a year ago. Next year, we expect Chinese auto sales to grow only modestly (under 5%).  The share of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in auto sales is rising rapidly in China, crowding out internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) at a fast rate. China is becoming more competitive in global auto manufacturing given its edge in NEV battery technologies and autonomous driving. Production of NEVs and the installation of NEV charging poles will expand rapidly. Yet, given the still-high valuation of these stocks, we will look to buy into these sectors at a better price entry point. Bottom Line: Chinese onshore and offshore automobile stock prices have risen sharply in the past couple of months on the expectation of improving car sales. Our bias is that the rally has been too fast and gone too far. Investors should wait for a pullback before they buy. Feature Chinese total auto sales contracted by 12% year on year in the first five months of this year due to a deep 24% contraction in non-NEV sales. In stark contrast, Chinese NEV sales have more than doubled during the same period. However, the 1-million-unit increase in NEV sales failed to counteract the 2.4-million-unit loss in non-NEV demand. This raises two questions. Why have NEV sales skyrocketed at a time when non-NEV sales have tanked? Will Chinese auto sales recover in 2022H2 and 2023? If so, then how strongly will the recovery be? The answer to the first question lies in a major auto chip allocation strategy that many Chinese auto producers adopted last year. Under limited semiconductor supplies, auto producers in China prioritized the use of chips in their production of NEV models – which have higher profit margins –over traditional vehicles. The greater availability of NEVs than ICEVs has meant an increase in sales of the former and a deep contraction in the latter in 2022H1. Chart 1Chinese Auto Sales: A Recovery Ahead? For the second question, we believe that China’s stimulus package to boost auto sales and an easing global auto chip shortage will lead to about a 10% recovery in auto sales in 2022H2 from a year ago. On the other hand, growth in 2023 will be very modest (under 5%). Accordingly, the daily data of Chinese retail auto sales have already shown a strong rebound in the total sales of NEVs and ICEVs in the last three weeks of June (Chart 1). Auto Sales In China: A Gradual Recovery     China’s auto sales are set to have a gradual recovery in 2022H2. We expect auto sales to reach 26.2-26.8 million units by the end of this year, with NEV and non-NEVs rising to 5-5.3 million units and 21.2-21.5 million units, respectively1 (Chart 2). The reasons for our positive estimates include policy stimulus, improving technological advancement of NEVs, as well as an easing in the global auto chip shortage. First, the government has issued a flurry of policies since late May attempting to boost domestic auto demand. As Chart 1 shows, these policies have proved effective, at least for now. In previous episodes of stimulus aimed at boosting auto sales in 2009-2010, 2016-2017, and 2019-2021, authorities had implemented similar supportive measures. While the stimulus worked well in the first two episodes, it was not effective in 2019-2021 (Chart 3).   Chart 2Auto Demand In China: A Gradual And Moderate Rebound Chart 3Policy Stimulus Will Help Lift Chinese Auto Demand Box 1 shows our summary of those auto stimulus and a comparison of these episodes. Of all these policies, we believe that a sales tax reduction2 on certain vehicles has proved to be the most effective policy as it directly reduced the prices of these vehicles. In 2022H2, this policy will mainly benefit ICEVs sales as NEVs will continue to enjoy a full exemption from the 10% vehicle purchase tax. The government is also considering an extension of the exemption for NEVs to the end of next year.  Box 1China’s Stimulus Package For The Domestic Auto Industry​​​​​​​ This year’s stimulus is more comparable to the 2009 and 2016 episodes as they share the same reduction in the sales tax rate from 10% to 5%. The main difference is that this time the policy targets cars with 2-liter engines or smaller, while back in 2009 and 2016 this policy only applied to vehicles with capacity no bigger than 1.6-liters. This means a larger range of vehicles will benefit from the reduction. In short, the current policy will allow an additional 23% share of total vehicles sold to benefit from the stimulus. Please note that for the period of 2019-2021 there was no sales tax reduction. This may be one of the reasons for the lack of recovery in vehicle sales in this episode; Chinese auto sales contracted in both 2019 and 2020. Second, Chinese NEVs buyers have been enjoying government subsidies, albeit on a sliding scale since 2019. The amount of subsidy has been dropping by 10%, 20% and 30% in 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively (Table 1). We expect NEV sales to rise as the subsidy is set to expire by the end of this year. This may induce some buyers to buy NEVs before the subsidy ends. Table 1Government Subsidy For NEV Purchase in China Chart 4NEVs Become More Appealing To Chinese Consumers In addition, NEVs are becoming increasingly appealing for auto buyers. This is due to longer travel mileage per battery charge, constant improvement in NEV related technologies, and an expanded charging/battery swap framework (Chart 4). Further, in comparison to traditional ICEVs, NEVs have become increasingly more equipped with functions such as autonomous driving, intelligent interconnection, and other software application-based services. NEVs will also become more integrated with intelligent and interactive networks. All these features will make NEVs more attractive to automobile buyers as well.  According to the McKinsey China Auto Consumer Insights 2021 report, Chinese consumers are more interested than ever in smart vehicle technologies, and they are willing to pay a premium for innovative features. 80% of consumers report that autonomous driving will be a key factor in their decision-making when they buy their next car. Meanwhile, 69% of consumers consider that over-the-air update technology (OTA) is an important feature, and 62% of those are willing to pay for it. Chart 5NEV Sales In China Are Not Very Sensitive To Gasoline Prices Rising oil and gasoline prices have also encouraged NEV sales in the past six-to-nine months. But we believe high fuel prices are relatively less important factors to NEV demand in China than in the US and EU. For example, in 2020H2, when oil prices were only around US$40-50 and domestic gasoline price were low, Chinese NEV sales still rose strongly during the same period (Chart 5). Third, the deep contraction in non-NEV sales in China in 2021 was partially caused by the global auto chip shortage. Global semiconductor chip shortages are likely to continue easing in 2022H2 as demand-supply gaps decrease across most components. Demand for consumer electronics is set to contract in the US and the EU in the next six-to-nine months. Hence, some capacity for PC and smartphone chips could be used to produce auto chips in the months ahead. Bottom Line: Government initiatives to boost auto sales, improving technological advancement of NEVs, and an easing of the global auto chip shortage will lift Chinese auto sales to some extent. Structural Auto Demand: A New Normal? Auto sales peaked in 2017 and are since down by 13%. Even if auto sales registered a modest recovery as we expect in 2022 and 2023, they will still be about 6% below their 2017 peak. The reasons why we do not expect a brisk auto sales recovery are as follows: Household (HH) income growth is very weak and the unemployment rate has been rising (Chart 6). HHs have considerable debt (Chart 7). With house prices not rising, and potentially deflating, HH willingness to take on more debt has declined. Chart 6Falling HH Income Growth And Rising Unemployment Chart 7HH Debt Burden Is Already High​​​​​​ Wage/income growth has downshifted and narrowed its gap with interest rates on consumer loans. The cost HH debt has therefore risen relative to their income growth, making consumers less willing to take on more debt.   Reflecting downbeat consumer sentiment, the HH marginal propensity to consume has fallen to very low levels and has not shown signs of improvement (Chart 8). With the mediocre structural auto demand outlook in China, NEV sales will rapidly gain market share from non-NEVs (Chart 9). NEVs currently account for about 18% of total auto sales in China, still much lower than the country’s goal of 40% in 2030. Chart 8HH Willingness To Spend Is Low Chinese Consumers: Falling Willingness To Consume Chart 9Accelerating NEV Penetration In China Last week the EU passed a plan of a 2035 phase-out of new fossil fuel car sales. This is also a trend for China. Chinese auto makers such as Changan, BAIC Motor and Haima have already announced that they will stop ICEV production in 2025. Chart 10Decelerating Growth In Chinese Oil Demand Declining ICEV sales will lead to lower growth of these vehicles on the road (Chart 10). Consequently, gasoline and diesel demand growth from passenger and commercial autos will be decelerating in China in the coming years. Bottom Line: Passenger car demand in China will be settled in low single digit growth rates. The market share of NEVs will rise very fast at the expense of ICEVs. In turn, falling ICEV sales will result in slower growth in domestic petroleum demand.  China: Increasing Competitiveness Chart 11Increasing Competitiveness Of Chinese Auto Manufacturers China has become increasingly competitive in global auto manufacturing. This is a strong tailwind for the country’s auto exports. In fact, the country’s net exports of autos have been rising (Chart 11). China is the world’s largest auto producer and consumer, accounting for 32.5% and 32% of global auto production and sales, respectively. The country is also the world’s largest NEV producer. Chart 12China: The World’s Leading And Largest EV Battery Producer ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​The battery is the most important component of an NEV, and its technological progress holds the key to the speed of NEV penetration. China is the world leader in this battery technology. China’s CATL is currently the world's largest battery manufacturer, with a market share of 32.5%. CATL ranked first in the world for five consecutive years from 2017 to 2021. In addition, four out of the top ten global EV battery players are Chinese companies, with a total market share of 44%, up from 41% last year (Chart 12). Moreover, in late June, CATL launched its cell-to-pack (CTP 3.0) battery. With a record-breaking volume utilization efficiency of 72% and an energy density of up to 255 Wh/kg, it achieves the highest integration level worldwide so far, capable of delivering a range of over 1,000 km on a single charge. The CTP 3.0 batteries are expected to be mass produced and come onto the market in 2023. The development of charging/battery-swapping infrastructure will continue to be faster in China than in other countries/regions due to the country’s competitive advantage in NEV production, including batteries, as well as related policy support. For example, the number of total public & private charging poles rose at a compound annual growth rate of 50% in the past five years. This allows China to collect more NEV charging-related data, which could be used to improve the country’s NEV manufacturing process, charging pole production, and the country’s charging infrastructure development. This will help reduce the charging anxiety of Chinese NEV users. In terms of autonomous driving, five Chinese companies have been included in the world’s 10 best autonomous driving companies based on their technological edge, according to the global autonomous driving report released by the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV). In addition to test drives in the US, major Chinese NEV makers have also carried out test drives in China with long distances and more complicated driving conditions. For example, as of mid-March, Baidu Apollo’s autonomous driving has already exceeded 25 million kilometers. In comparison, the total test distance of autonomous driving of all autonomous driving test cars in California were only 6.4 million kilometers. Chart 13China: Faster NEV Penetration Versus Other Countries At 13.4%, the share of NEVs in total auto sales in China was high last year compared with other countries (Chart 13). The ratio has already risen to 21% in the first five months of this year. Bottom Line: China will become more competitive in global auto manufacturing given its edge in NEV battery technologies and autonomous driving. Investment Implications Chinese onshore and offshore automobile stock prices have risen sharply in the past couple of months, expecting improving car sales in the short-to-medium term (Chart 14). Our bias is that the rally has been too fast and gone too far. Investors should wait for a pullback before they buy. A shakeout in broader Chinese offshore and onshore stocks is likely due to the following (Chart 15): Chart 14Chinese Automobile Stock Prices: A Lot Of Good News Already Priced In... Chart 15...A Pullback Is Due Chart 16Look To Buy Chinese NEV-related Stocks China’s economy is still facing downward pressure due to a faltering property market, sluggish household income growth and consumption, falling export demand, as well as heightened risks of further COVID-induced lockdowns. Global equities have probably not completed their downtrend. It will be hard for Chinese stocks to continue rallying if global share prices continue to fall. That said, we have a bullish bias towards Chinese NEV producers. China’s NEV sector enjoys tailwinds from structurally strong demand and its technological edge, especially in batteries. Hence, we will look to buy Chinese NEV and battery stocks at a better price entry point (Chart 16).   Ellen JingYuan He Associate Vice President ellenj@bcaresearch.com   Footnotes 1     China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) predicted Chinese auto sales to rise to 27.5 million units for the full year. We are a little bit less optimistic on that front. 2     The State Council of China is enacting 60-billion-yuan (US$9 billion) worth of tax cuts between June and December. The purchase tax on certain passenger vehicles will be reduced by half to 5% of the sticker price. The tax cuts target cars with 2-liter engines or smaller, priced at 300,000 yuan (US$ 44,800) or less. Strategic Themes Cyclical Recommendations

Chart 1 In June of this year, we published a Special Report on EV Revolution, recommending clients to add exposure to the structural electric vehicles (EV) theme to their portfolios. We continue to be bullish about the space and are reiterating our call. While the EV Revolution theme transcends GICS definitions, the S&P Autos & Components index remains the industry group with the highest EV exposure. It is dominated by Tesla and legacy automakers, Ford, and GM. Since our June Special Report, the sector outperformed the market by 34% (Chart 1). In the report, we posited that The Autos & Components industry group is in the middle of a momentous transition to electric and autonomous-vehicle manufacturing thanks to technological advances in battery storage, AI, and radars. Further, we noted that the entire EV ecosystem will benefit from government support for decarbonization, the preferences of millennials for green tech, and cutting-edge technological innovation. The recent passage of the Infrastructure bill with its green provisions are a certain positive for EVs. Chart 2 Tesla dominates the Auto industry group and accounts for roughly 75% of its market cap, thus dwarfing all other constituents. It had an amazing run since we made the call, doubling since June 21, 2021, when the report was published. While we are not stock-pickers, we believe that Tesla is a poster child of the theme: it sold 241,300 in the third quarter alone, which is over 100,000 than the same quarter last year - compare that to 367,500 vehicles in all of 2019. Tesla’s profitability is growing steadily (Chart 2), and so far, it was able to fend off challenges from competitors. Legacy Automakers, while crimped by the chip shortages and supply chain disruptions, are also likely beneficiaries of the theme: costs are high, but rewards are worth it: Higher earnings and greater economic visibility regarding EV transition should lead to eventual rerating of the industry group. These carmakers are also turning into Growth stocks as an expected surge in earnings is far in the future. In Table 1, we summarize the most popular EV ETFs. A more detailed description of each investment vehicle is in the appendix of the original report. Bottom Line: We believe that the EV/AV theme will continue to outperform the US equity market over the 3-12 months horizon.

Highlights US labor-market disappointments notwithstanding, the global recovery being propelled by real GDP growth in the world's major economies is on track to be the strongest in 80 years. This growth will fuel commodity demand, which increasingly confronts tighter supply.  Higher commodity prices will ensue, and feed through to realized and expected inflation.  Manufacturers will continue to see higher input and output prices. Our modeling suggests the USD will weaken to end-2023; however, most of the move already has occurred.  Real US rates will remain subdued, as the Fed looks through PCE inflation rates above its 2% target and continues to focus on its full-employment mandate (Chart of the Week). Given these supportive inflation fundamentals, we remain long gold with a price target of $2,000/oz for this year.  We are upgrading silver to a strategic position, expecting a $30/oz price by year-end.  We remain long the S&P GSCI Dynamic Roll Index ETF (COMT) and the S&P GSCI, expecting tight supply-demand balances to steepen backwardations in forward curves, and long the Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK). Global economic policy uncertainty will remain elevated until broader vaccine distributions reduce lockdown risks. Feature The recovery of the global economy catalyzed by massive monetary accommodation and fiscal stimulus is on track to be the strongest in the past 80 years, according to the World Bank.1 The Bank revised its growth expectation for real GDP this year sharply higher – to 5.6% from its January estimate of 4.1%. For 2022, the rate of global real GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.3%, which is still significantly higher than the average 3% growth of 2018-19. DM economies are expected to grow at a 4% rate this year – double the average 2018-19 rate – while EM growth is expected to come in at 6% this year vs a 4.2% average for 2018-19. The big drivers of growth this year will be China, where the Bank expects an unleashing of pent-up demand to push real GDP up by 8.5%, and the US, where massive fiscal and monetary support will lift real GDP 6.8%. The Bank expects other DM economies will contribute to this growth, as well. Growth in EM economies will be supported by stronger demand and higher commodity prices, in the Bank's forecast. Commodity demand is recovering faster than commodity supply in the wake of this big-economy GDP recovery. As a result, manufacturers globally are seeing significant increases in input and output prices (Chart 2). Chart of the WeekUS Real Rates Continue To Languish Chart 2Global Manufacturers' Prices Moving Higher These price increases at the manufacturing level reflect the higher-price environment in global commodity markets, particularly in industrial commodities – i.e., bulks like iron ore and steel; base metals like copper and aluminum; and oil prices, which touch most processes involved in getting materials out of the ground and into factories before they make their way to consumers, who then drive to stores to pick up goods or have them delivered. Chart 3Commodity Price Increases Reflected in CPI Inflation Expectations These price pressures are being picked up in 5y5y CPI swaps markets, which are cointegrated with commodity prices (Chart 3). This also is showing up in shorter-tenor inflation gauges – monthly CPI and 2y CPI swaps. Oil prices, in particular, will be critical to the evolution of 5-year/5-year (5y5y) CPI swap rates, which are closely followed by fixed-income markets (Chart 4). Chart 4Oil Prices Are Key To 5Y5Y CPI Swap Rates Higher Gold Prices Expected CPI inflation expectations drive 5-year and 10-year real rates, which are important explanatory variables for gold prices (Chart 5).2 In addition, the massive monetary and fiscal policy out of the US also is driving expectations for a lower USD: Currency debasement fears are higher than they otherwise would be, given all the liquidity and stimulus sloshing around global markets, which also is bullish for gold (Chart 6). Chart 5Weaker Real Rates Bullish For Gold Chart 6Weaker USD Supports Gold All of these effects, particularly the inflationary impacts, are summarized in our fair-value gold model (Chart 7). At the beginning of 2021, our fair-value gold model indicated price would be closer to $2,005/oz, which was well above the actual gold price in January. Gold prices have remained below the fair value model since the beginning of 2021. The model explains gold prices using real rates, TWIB, US CPI and global economic policy uncertainty. Based on our modeling, we expect these variables to continue to be supportive of gold, bolstering our view the yellow metal will reach $2000/ oz this year. Unlike industrial commodities, gold prices are sensitive to speculative positioning and technical indicators. Our gold composite indicator shows that gold prices may be reflecting bullish sentiment. This sentiment likely reflects increasing inflation expectations, which we use as an explanatory variable for gold prices. The fact that gold is moving higher on sentiment is corroborated by the latest data point from Marketvane’s gold bullish consensus, which reported 72% of the traders expect prices to rise further (Chart 8). Chart 7BCAs Gold Fair-Value Model Supports 00/oz View Chart 8Sentiment Supports Oil Prices Investment Implications The massive monetary and fiscal stimulus that saw the global economy through the worst of the economic devastation of the COVID-19 pandemic is now bubbling through the real economy, and will, if the World Bank's assessment proves out, result in the strongest real GDP growth in 80 years. Liquidity remains abundant and interest rates – real and nominal – remain low. In its latest Global Economic Prospects, the Bank notes, " The literature generally suggests that monetary easing, both conventional and unconventional, typically boosts aggregate demand and inflation with a lag of 1-3 years …" The evidence for this is stronger for DM economies than EM; however, as the experience in China shows, scale matters. If the Bank's assessment is correct, the inflationary impulse from this stimulus should be apparent now – and it is – and will endure for another year or two. This stimulus has catalyzed organic growth and will continue to do so for years, particularly in economies pouring massive resources into renewable-energy generation and the infrastructure required to support it, a topic we have been writing about for some time.3 We remain long gold with a price target of $2,000/oz for this year. We are long silver on a tactical basis, but given our growth expectations, are upgrading this to a strategic position, expecting a $30/oz price by year-end. As we have noted in the past, silver is sensitive to all of the financial factors we consider when assessing gold markets, and it has a strong industrial component that accounts for more than half of its demand.4 Supportive fundamentals remain in place, with total supply (mine output and recycling) falling, demand rising and balances tightening (Chart 9). Worth noting is silver's supply is constrained because of underinvestment in copper production at the mine level, where silver is a by-product. On the demand side, continued recovery of industrial and consumer demand will keep silver prices well supported. In terms of broad commodity exposure, we remain long the S&P GSCI Dynamic Roll Index ETF (COMT) and the S&P GSCI, expecting tight supply-demand balances to continue to draw down inventories – particularly in energy and metals markets – which will lead to steeper backwardations in forward curves. Backwardation is the source of roll-yields for long commodity index investments. Investors initially have a long exposure in deferred commodity futures contracts, which are then liquidated and re-established when these contracts become more prompt (i.e., closer to delivery). If the futures' forward curves are backwardated, investors essentially are buying the deferred contracts at a lower price than the price at which the position likely is liquidated. We also remain long the Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK), an equity vehicle that spans miners and traders; the longer discounting horizon of equity markets suits our view on metals. Chart 9Upgrading Silver To Strategic Position Chart 10Wider Vaccine Distribution Will Support Gold Demand Global economic policy uncertainty will remain elevated until broader vaccine distributions reduce lockdown risks. We expect the wider distribution of vaccines will become increasingly apparent during 2H21 and in 2022. This will be bullish for physical gold demand – particularly in China and India – which will add support for our gold position (Chart 10).       Robert P. Ryan Chief Commodity & Energy Strategist rryan@bcaresearch.com Ashwin Shyam Research Associate Commodity & Energy Strategy ashwin.shyam@bcaresearch.com   Commodities Round-Up Energy: Bullish The US EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to fall to $60/bbl next year, given its call higher production from OPEC 2.0 and the US shales will outpace demand growth. The EIA expects global oil demand will average just under 98mm this year, or 5.4mm b/d above 2020 levels. For next year, the EIA is forecasting demand will grow 3.6mm b/d, averaging 101.3mm b/d. This is slightly less than the demand growth we expect next year – 101.65mm b/d. We are expecting 2022 Brent prices to average $73/bbl, and $78/bbl in 2023. We will be updating our oil balances and price forecasts in next week's publication. Base Metals: Bullish Pedro Castillo, the socialist candidate in Peru's presidential election, held on to a razor-thin lead in balloting as we went to press. Markets have been focused on the outcome of this election, as Castillo has campaigned on increasing taxes and royalties for mining companies operating in Peru, which accounts for ~10% of global copper production. The election results are likely to be contested by opposition candidate rival Keiko Fujimori, who has made unsubstantiated claims of fraud, according to reuters.com. Copper prices traded on either side of $4.50/lb on the CME/COMEX market as the election drama was unfolding (Chart 11). Precious Metals: Bullish As economies around the world reopen and growth rebounds, car manufacturing will revive. Stricter emissions regulations mean the demand for autocatalysts – hence platinum and palladium – will rise with the recovery in automobile production. Platinum is also used in the production of green hydrogen, making it an important metal for the shift to renewable energy. On the supply side, most platinum shafts in South Africa are back to pre-COVID-19 levels, according to Johnson Matthey, the metals refiner. As a result, supply from the world’s largest platinum producer will rebound by 40%, resulting in a surplus. South Africa accounts for ~ 70% of global platinum supply. The fact that an overwhelming majority of platinum comes from a nation which has had periodic electricity outages – the most recent one occurring a little more than a week ago – could pose a supply-side risk to this metal. This could introduce upside volatility to prices (Chart 12). Ags/Softs: Neutral As of 6 June, 90% of the US corn crop had emerged vs a five-year average of 82%; 72% of the crop was reported to be in good to excellent condition vs 75% at this time last year. Chart 11 Chart 12 Footnotes 1     Please see World Bank's Global Economic Prospects update, published June 8, 2021. 2     In fact, US Treasury Inflation-Indexed securities include the CPI-U as a factor in yield determination.  3    For our latest installment of this epic evolution, please see A Perfect Energy Storm On The Way, which we published last week.  It is available at ces.bcareserch.com. 4    Please see Higher Inflation Expectations Battle Lower Risk Premia In Gold Markets, which we published February 4, 2021. It is available at ces.bcareserch.com.     Investment Views and Themes Strategic Recommendations Tactical Trades Commodity Prices and Plays Reference Table Trades Closed in 2021 Summary of Closed Trades

ハイライト 中国の鋼材需要の急増を受け、建築およびインフラプロジェクトが今年完了するにつれて上海鉄鋼先物が今月初めに5,200人民元/MT弱の史上高近くまで上昇したことから、銅価格はさらに上昇すると見込まれます（今週のチャート）。 銅は今年および来年にかけて実需ベースでの需給不足を記録し、在庫がさらに減少するとともに中国および世界的に銅スクラップの需要を押し上げるでしょう。 銅価格の上昇が続けば、現在の市場での口先介入が需要と価格上昇を抑えられない場合、中国の膨大な国家保有銅在庫（約200万MTと推定される）の一部を当局が放出する可能性があります。 強い鋼材マージンと製鉄所に対する新たな環境規制が高品位鉄鉱石（65% Fe）需要を押し上げており、同品は今週初めに約223ドル/MT弱の史上高を付けました。ベンチマークの鉄鉱石価格（62% Fe）は今週10年ぶり高値で取引され、約190ドル/MT手前でした。 当社は2021年12月の銅価格予想を4.50ドル/lbから5.00ドル/lbに引き上げます。さらに、本日の取引終了時に2022年物CME/COMEX銅をロングし、2023年物CME/COMEX銅をショートするポジションを取ります。より急峻なバックワーデーションを見込んでの取組みです。 特集 中国の唐山（Tangshan）製鉄拠点における汚染削減のための製鉄所稼働率の最大30%削減という政府指示は、建設およびインフラのブームに対応する既に逼迫した市場をさらに引き締めることになります（チャート2）。このブームは鋼材価格、そして結果的に鉄鉱石価格を急騰させました（チャート3）。過去と同様に、これが銅の強気相場の次の局面の舞台を整えます。 今週のチャート 鋼材の急騰が銅価格の更なる上昇を予告 鉄鋼の急騰は銅価格のさらなる上昇を示唆する 鉄鋼の急騰は銅価格のさらなる上昇を示唆する 当社のモデルでは、特に鉄筋（リバー）価格と銅価格の間に強い関係があることが今週のチャートで確認できます。鋼材は建築・インフラプロジェクトの前段階で使われ（鉄筋で補強されたコンクリートや圧延コイル製品など）、その後、完成したプロジェクトには銅が使われます（配線や配管の形で）。 チャート2 銅の強気相場は続く 銅の強気相場は続く 銅の強気相場は続く 建設・建築ブームに加え、製造業の継続的な回復が銅価格の追い風となり、2021年後半の世界的な活動回復がこれをさらに増幅します。チャート4は名目GDP水準と銅価格の関係を示しています。重要なのは、アジア（中国を含む）およびアジア以外の経済成長が銅価格とコインテグレーション（共積分）関係にあることで、すなわち経済成長と工業コモディティは長期的な均衡を共有しており、それが同時変動を説明します。 チャート3 鋼材ブームが鉄鉱石価格を押し上げる 鉄鋼ブームが鉄鉱石価格を押し上げる 鉄鋼ブームが鉄鉱石価格を押し上げる メディア報道はしばしば、中国の政府支出をGDP比で注目しがちです（例：社会融資総額のGDP比）。しかし商品価格動向を説明しようとする際に経済要因が除外されがちです。中国政府が民間部門（財・サービス面）をさらに拡大することに成功すれば、オーガニックな経済成長が中国のコモディティ需要を説明する上でより重要になります。 チャート4 世界経済の成長が銅価格を押し上げる 世界的な経済成長が銅価格を押し上げる 世界的な経済成長が銅価格を押し上げる 当社の銅モデルでは、名目中国GDP、新興アジア（EMアジア）GDPおよびアジア以外の新興国（EM）GDPに加え、鋼材と鉄鉱石価格が銅価格と共積分関係にあることが分かります。これは純粋な経済学的観点から期待される結果です。一方で、これらの工業用コモディティ価格と中国の名目GDPに対する社会融資総額の割合との間には共積分関係（経済的な共動性や共通トレンド）は見られません。これらのモデルにより、銅価格の説明や予測に役立たない偽の関係を回避できます。 チャート5 鉄鉱石・銅の需要はグリーン・エネルギーの整備で増加する 鉄鋼価格の急騰で銅が上昇 鉄鋼価格の急騰で銅が上昇 チャート6 再生可能エネルギーが新規増分発電を主導 銅、鉄鋼価格の急騰を受け上昇へ 銅、鉄鋼価格の急騰を受け上昇へ 長期的には、当社が過去の調査報告で指摘してきたように、分散型再生可能発電の導入、よりレジリエントな電力網、電気自動車（EV）への移行は、鉄鉱石や鋼材といったばら積み需要、および特に銅のようなベースメタルの需要成長の主要な源泉となります（チャート5）。1 すでに再生可能エネルギーは、世界の電力網に追加される新規増分発電の中で最も高い成長セグメントを占めています（チャート6）。 銅供給の増加にはより高い価格が必要 銅供給は短期（2022年末まで）では需要に対応するのが困難であり、再生可能エネルギーとEVの整備は大半がこれから始まる段階にあります。つまり中期（2025年末まで）および長期（2050年）において、需要を満たすためにはかなりの新供給を開発する必要があります。 短期的には、精錬銅の供給面、特に製錬所が半精製品として精製し製造入力にする凝縮物（コンデンセート）レベルが極めて低下しており、中国の製錬所におけるトリートメント料・精製料（TC/RC）の長期的な急落からも確認できます（チャート7）。先週およそ22ドル/MTで、これらの手数料は2013年に中国でのベンチマークTC/RC指数が開始されて以来の最低水準でした（reuters.comによる）。2 チャート7 供給減少で銅のTC/RCが低下、価格を押し上げる 銅のTCRCsが供給減で下落し、価格を押し上げる 銅のTCRCsが供給減で下落し、価格を押し上げる 銅の供給事情はチャート8にも表れており、年次の供給と需要を残高に換算すると、これが在庫市場を介して調整されます。国際銅研究グループ（ICSG）は、鉱山生産は昨年も前年並みで推移し、精銅供給はわずか1.5%の増加にとどまったと推定しています。 チャート8 実需の不足が銅在庫を引き下げる... 現物不足が銅在庫を取り崩す… 現物不足が銅在庫を取り崩す… ICSGの推定によれば消費は2.2%増加し、中国の保税倉庫在庫を調整後の今年の実需ベースの不足は456千MTが見込まれます。これで銅市場は4年連続の実需不足となり、2017年以降の平均不足は約414千MTです。その結果、在庫が再び供給ギャップを埋める頼みとなり、世界の在庫は前年比約25%減と低水準で今後も減少し続けるでしょう（チャート9）。 鉱業の設備投資が弱く、銅鉱石の品位が低下しているため、相当程度の新投資を促すにはより高い価格が必要です（チャート10）。しかし、これらプロジェクトのリードタイムは最良のケースでも5年であるため、鉱山会社は近い将来に最終投資判断を下してプロジェクトを承認する必要があります（チャート11）。 チャート9 ...結果として4年続く実需不足で在庫は低水準 …4年にわたる現物不足を経て低い …4年にわたる現物不足を経て低い チャート10 弱い投資と低下する鉱石品位を是正するにはより高い銅価格が必要 弱い設備投資と鉱石品位の低下を是正するには、銅価格のさらなる上昇が必要だ 弱い設備投資と鉱石品位の低下を是正するには、銅価格のさらなる上昇が必要だ チャート11 新規鉱山稼働までのリードタイムは短縮中だが時間は限られる 銅、鉄鋼価格の急騰で上昇へ 銅、鉄鋼価格の急騰で上昇へ 投資への含意 当社が銅に注目するのは、銅があらゆる再生可能技術に関わり、電気自動車（EV）にとっても重要であり、特にこの技術が広く普及した場合にその重要性が増すという単純な事実によります（チャート12）。 当社は短期・中期・長期の投資期間にわたり銅供給の課題が続くと予想しています。短期対応として、当社は2020年9月10日に2021年12月物銅をロングすることを推奨しており、このポジションは現在39.2%の含み益です。中長期をカバーするために、当社はS&P グローバル GSCI コモディティ・インデックスおよびiShares GSCI コモディティ ダイナミック ロール ストラテジー ETF（COMT）をそれぞれ2017年12月7日と2021年3月12日に推奨しており、これらは現時点でそれぞれ-2.3%および-0.8%となっています。 チャート12 電気自動車の普及が新たな銅需要を生む 鉄鋼価格の急騰で銅が上昇へ 鉄鋼価格の急騰で銅が上昇へ 本日の取引終了時に、上記の銅の需給ストーリーに基づく中期的な機会を捉えるために、2022年物CME/COMEX銅先物をロングし、2023年物CME/COMEX銅先物をショートするポジションを構築します。市場のさらなる引き締まりにより在庫が取り崩され、銅先物カーブのバックワーデーションがより急峻になると予想しています。 短期・中期・長期の当社ポジションに対する主なリスクは、世界的にCOVID-19パンデミックを抑制できないことであり、これは短期的なリスクだと考えています。第二のリスクは、中国国家備蓄局（別名：国家鉱物備蓄局）が保有する戦略的な銅コンセントレート備蓄の大規模放出です。後者のリスクに関して、同局の実際の保有量は不明ですが、約200万MTの範囲にあると考えられています。3 結論： 当社は工業用コモディティ、特に銅に対して強気の立場を維持します。 ロバート・P・ライアン チーフ・コモディティ＆エネルギー・ストラテジスト rryan@bcaresearch.com   コモディティ概要 エネルギー： 強気 米国エネルギー情報局（EIA）によれば、テキサス州は2022年末までに約10GWのユーティリティ規模の太陽光発電を追加する見込みです。テキサスは2020年に本格的に太陽光市場に参入し、2.5GWを導入しました。EIAは今後2年間で年平均約5GWを追加すると見ており、総太陽光容量は約15GW弱になる見込みです。この新規容量の約30%は米国で最も生産性の高い油田があるパーミアン盆地で建設される予定です。比較として、米国の太陽光発電の主要生産州であるカリフォルニアはEIAによれば3.2GWの新規太陽光容量を追加します（チャート13）。2022年末までに、新規太陽光発電の約3分の1がテキサスで追加される見込みで、同州はすでに国内で最大の風力発電地でもあります。風力の発電可能性は夜間に高く、太陽は昼間に最も豊富です。 貴金属： 強気 パラジウム価格は水曜日に約2,876ドル/ozで取引され、2020年2月の過去最高2,875.50ドル/ozを上回り3,000ドル/ozに迫っています。これは世界最大のパラジウム生産者であるロシアの金属メーカー、ノリリスクの生産見通し引き下げが続いているためです（チャート14）。同社は今週、以前の見通しを更新し、鉱山の浸水により銅・ニッケル・パラジウムの鉱山生産が今年最大20%減少する可能性があるとしました。パラジウムはガソリン車の触媒に使われ、世界がCOVID-19由来の需要破壊と自動車の供給を制限している半導体不足から回復するにつれて、自動車販売の回復が見込まれます。加えて、白金族金属（PGM）の生産は南アフリカの電力供給の不安定さにより妨げられており、国内の電力大手が需給調整のために計画停電を実施せざるを得ない状況です。当社は2020年4月23日にパラジウムのロングを推奨して以降、同金属のロングを維持しており、このポジションは35.6%の含み益です。 チャート13 鉄鋼価格の急騰で銅が上昇へ 鉄鋼価格の急騰で銅が上昇へ チャート14 パラジウム価格 パラジウム価格     脚注 1     例として当社が2020年11月26日に発表したレポート「Renewables, China's FYP Underpin Metals Demand」（再生可能エネルギー：中国の五カ年計画が金属需要を支える）をご覧ください。‌ ces.bcaresearch.comで入手可能です。   2     reuters.comに掲載された2021年4月14日付の記事「RPT-COLUMN-Copper smelter terms at rock bottom as mine squeeze hits: Andy Home」を参照してください。この記事は、鉱山と製錬所間の直接取引が10ドル/MT程度まで報告されたことを指摘しており、銅の実需サイドが現状いかに逼迫しているかを示しています。 3    reuters.comに掲載された2021年4月20日付の記事「Column: Supercycle or China cycle? Funds wait for Dr Copper's call」をご覧ください。    投資見解とテーマ 推奨 戦略的推奨 戦術的トレード コモディティ価格と取組の参考表 2021年にクローズしたトレード クローズ済みトレードの要約 より高いインフレが到来 より高いインフレが到来