経済
The September update of the J.P.Morgan Global Services PMI inched down from 51.1 to 50.8 in September. This marks the fourth consecutive month of decline and brings the headline index to its lowest level since January. The New Business and New Export Business…
Our Global Investment Strategy service’s MacroQuant 1.0 model – which is calibrated to produce recommendations over a 30-day investment horizon – is currently overweight equities and underweight bonds and cash. Model: The asset allocation decision is…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends a barbelled allocation across the Treasury curve. The Treasury curve bear-steepened in September. The 2-year/10-year Treasury slope steepened 32 bps on the month and currently sits at -43 bps. The…
There is a connection between the bond market meltdown and Republican Party’s meltdown. Investors should expect more short-term financial market volatility as a result of the triple whammy of high bond yields, high oil prices, and a strong dollar.
We unveil the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator as a much better version of the Federal Reserve’s own ‘Sahm rule’. And we identify what would trigger these recession indicators in this week’s and future US jobs reports. Plus: airlines, soybeans, and tin are all good rebound candidates based on their collapsed short-term complexities.
The US JOLTS report sent a chill through financial markets on Tuesday. The bigger-than-expected number of job openings in August fueled investors’ concern that the Fed will be forced to maintain a hawkish stance for longer. Indeed, the number of job…
The Australian dollar was among the worst performing major currencies on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.1% for the fourth consecutive month. In her post meeting statement, newly appointed Governor Michele Bullock noted…
The Citi US Inflation Surprise Index has risen over the past two months after having bottomed at a three-year low in July. The good news is that the level of the index remains negative after having first fallen below zero in April – meaning inflation data is…
The S&P 500’s performance deteriorated significantly in Q3. After having soared by nearly 16% in the first half of the year, the index ended the third quarter with a 3.7% loss. True, a surge in AI winners drove the H1 performance: IT, Communication…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the Mediterranean bloc’s move from current account deficit to current account surplus nations greatly limits the risk of a new sovereign debt crisis. A combination of reforms, fiscal rigor,…