経済成長
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, the 2006/07 roadmap remains a good one for bond investors. The Fed held the funds rate steady this afternoon and made no material changes to its policy statement. That said, meeting participants did…
China’s reopening faltered and now it is applying moderate stimulus. OPEC 2.0’s production discipline is getting results, with oil prices climbing. The Fed will not be able to deliver dovish surprises in Q4 2023. Investors should expect stock market and commodity volatility and prefer defensive positioning.
The German auto and components sector is under stress. Year-to-date, the sector’s equity prices have declined by 3.5% relative to the broader German market, and multiple indicators suggest that further challenges lie ahead. One significant concern is the…
Over the past few months a schism has emerged in the industrial metals complex. On the one hand, the Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index – which is composed of futures contracts on copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, and lead – has been gyrating in a trading range…
Monetary policy is difficult to calibrate: it is hard to get it just right. The Global Investment Strategy (GIS) service has been iterating that while the Fed could temporarily achieve a soft landing, there is much uncertainty surrounding the idea that the…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service European inflation is likely to remain stubborn through the remainder of the decade, since the working-age population’s decline will keep the labor market tight. European rates have…
While we are sympathetic to the view that the Fed could temporarily achieve a soft landing, we are skeptical that it could stick that landing for very long. Stocks could strengthen into year-end, with small caps potentially leading the charge. But the rally will fizzle out next year as the global economy begins to sink into recession.
A sharp drop in the US labor force participation rate was among the pandemic disruptions that contributed to tight labor market conditions. The total participation rate collapsed from 63.3% in February 2020 to 60.1% in April 2020. The decline over those two…
Strong consumer spending so far this year has been powered by robust employment gains coupled with real wage growth turning positive on the back of receding inflationary pressures. However, our US equity strategists recently highlighted that these…
US small business optimism deteriorated for the first time in four months in August. The NFIB index declined by 0.6 point to 91.3, falling slightly below expectations of 91.5. In particular, current conditions deteriorated slightly: the share of owners…